Iran, a country small and weak — compared to the US — is the tail wagging the dog
Blessed are the peacemakers . . . well, make that the manipulators. If the matter were not so deadly serious, we would perversely sit back in our chairs and wax poetic about the political genius of the leadership in Iran.
Take this recent nuclear deal in context — in large context. In grand context. The deal is an absolute reversal of any logical, expected, rational turn of fortune.
Here is Iran, pretty strong in the Middle East, but a weakling compared to the United States of America. By every measure of population, economy, military strength, intellectual capital, cultural achievement, political maturity and religious integrity, Iran is a nothing compared to this country.
And yet, Iran has somehow created the atmosphere that if the world powers can just force Iran to delay its nuclear ambitions for five or 10 or 25 years, it is a great achievement, because, after all, there is no other choice but war!
As if the determiner of what the choices are, is this weak country, Iran.
All of its braggadocio, oil and even terrorism notwithstanding, Iran is, right now, a small and weak country:
• Its population is about five times less than that of the US.
• Its economy is immeasurably smaller than that of the US.
• Its military could not survive one week against an all out American assault.
• Its intellectual capital, which has produced exactly one Nobel Prize winner and not a single notable scientific or medical discovery, desires to flee to the West to pursue its dreams.
• Its cultural achievement may be measured inversely by how much its populace envies the electronics, the music, the movies and the art of the West.
• Its political maturity is signified by the fact that a popular democratic outbreak in 2012 was met by decisive government suppression.
• Its religious achievements are measured by how many innocent people it has murdered in the name of Allah, not to mention its persecution of Christians, Baha’is and even native Zoroastrians.
Yet, this country has manipulated the US from beginning to end, first by defiance of the threat of UN sanctions — a tactic that allowed it time to develop thousands of nuclear centrifuges — then by defiance of UN sanctions, which, for all of the economic pain they have inflicted on Iran, did not deter it for a moment from its singleminded quest for a nuclear weapon; and, far more notably, did not diminish its power to get the West to do its bidding.
Blessed are the manipulators — they persuaded the world’s superpower that the only option was to negotiate over a nuclear program that, when it first came to light, could have been dispatched just as easily as Israel dispatched Syria’s nuclear program in 2007 — in one day. All right, with Iran, it probably would have taken a few days, but the point remains the same: Blessed are the manipulators. Somehow, the political geniuses in Iran’s leadership convinced the US, the UN and the world that “there was no choice” but to move to non-violent means of stopping Iran, first by UN resolutions, then by UN sanctions, then by negotiations, and now by a diplomatic deal, which, whatever its precise terms, leaves Iran 100? — 1,000? — 10,000? — steps further down the road to a nuclear weapon than it was at the inception of its pursuit, after 9/11.
In the long term, Iran has triumphed because the West in general and the US in particular have been cowed into submission by an inferior power. As we say, if the matter were not so deadly serious, we would perversely revel in the Iranian genius for getting its way.
Now look where we are: with a deal that
• will not close down Iran’s nuclear weapons program once and for all;
• will not allow inspections anywhere, anytime;
• does not require Iran to dismantle its centrifuges, only to store them;
• will allow Iran to trade in conventional weapons in five years and in ICBMs in eight years;
• does not address the hatred of Iran for America and for Israel;
• does not address Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism around the world;
• does allow Iran to spend the billions it will now receive in sanctions relief on any of these nefarious goals; and
• does dream that when the restrictions on Iran run out in years to come, Iran will somehow just give up on nuclear weapons of its own volition.
Now look where we are: with a deal that has no way to reimpose sanctions on Iran if Iran cheats on its promise to limit its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Iran, of course, is a serial cheater. The supposed “snap-back” of sanctions is strictly theoretical. For sanctions to reimposed, all eight signatories to the agreement must agree. Right: Go get China to agree once it has great markets in Iran. Go get Russia to agree while the US holds Russia itself under sanctions. Blessed are the manipulators.
And Israel? President Obama now says that he will increase American military aid to Israel even more than his previous increases in that aid. When Obama says that no previous American president has sold so much weaponry to Israel, he is right. He is to be acknowledged for this and thanked for it. However, he is also likely to be surprised and even outraged if Israel now finds it necessary to use some of this military hardware in ways that he obviously would prefer that Israel not do.
But what’s the surprise? Obama’s complete obliviousness to his own seduction by the deft manipulators in Tehran has left Israel between a rock and a hard place.
Words about the greatness of Obama’s “signature foreign policy achievement” may vivify him and others, but man cannot live by words alone. Israel cannot live by words alone. Israel can only live in this world, terrorists and all, threats and all, Hezbollah and all, nuclear programs and all, with unvarnished realism.
Israel cannot afford to regard the manipulators with anything but horror. Dear Congress: It is not too late to make a difference.
Copyright © 2015 by the Intermountain Jewish News
