We don’t know who will win in America’s upcoming midterm elections, Nov. 3. We don’t need to know who will win Israel’s national election, Oct. 27.
Benjamin Netanyahu will still be prime minister.
It’s not prophecy. It’s how Israel’s parliamentary system works.
It takes 61 seats in the Knesset out of a total of 120 seats to form a government. In Israel’s entire 78-year history, there has never been one political party that has won 61 seats in any election. So it’s all but impossible for it to happen this election, either.
For there to be a government that replaces the current one — that commands 61 seats in the Knesset — several parties need to reach agreements on policy and on who will head government ministries.
But first, the formal election results must be tallied and published.
Meanwhile, the current prime minister heads a “caretaker” government. This is something of a misnomer. The “caretaker” government can do virtually everything the duly constituted government can do, up to and including going to war.
There will be no duly constituted government in Israel following the Oct. 27 election before the president of Israel selects one party to try to form a government of 61 seats.
The president’s decision-making process itself takes seven days, by statute. He meets separately with all of the parties that won any seats in the Knesset. It is just as important for the president to meet with the smaller parties as much as the bigger parties, since it is the smaller parties that decide which of the larger parties to join in a government coalition. So every party must be consulted.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu remains as the caretaker prime minister.
The president usually selects the party that has won the larger number of seats in the Knesset to try to form a government, but there is no guarantee that this party will succeed in bridging all of the differences between itself and its potential coalition partners, even with all of the political horsetrading.
The president is required to given the party he selects 28 days to form a government. It can request an extension of 14 days — a common move. Some six more weeks go by. Netanyahu remains prime minster until a new government is formed.
Will it? Precedent is pessimistic. After Israel’s last election, the party that won the most vote — that seemed most able to form a government, was selected by the president to try to do so, but failed to do so.
The president had to select another party to give it a try — another 24 days (with no 14-day extension).
Meanwhile, the “caretakers” prime minister remains in office.
Then, if no government can be formed, the president tells the Knesset, which has 21 days to come up with its own candidate to form a government. He gets 14 days to try. If the Knesset does not come up with its own candidate, the Knesset dissolves and a new 90-day election cycle begins.
Before Israel’s last election four years ago, Israel went through five successive sterile elections. Each one failed to yield a coalition government. This lasted a couple of years.
Throughout, the caretaker government remained in charge.
Polls show Prime Minister Netanyahu’s likely political bloc of parties winning less Knesset seats that the leading opposition bloc. That, however, does not necessarily mean that the opposition can put together a ruling coalition of 61 (or more) Knesset seats, since it, like Netanyahu’s potential bloc, has pledged not to include an Arab party in a coalition.
Any combination of parties on the right, left or middle, minus an Arab party or parties, may not be able to form a governing coalition.
It will take weeks to know.
Love him or hate him, get used to Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel for awhile, even if his political bloc does not come in first in Israel’s national election next week.
© IJN 2026
