Obama says hes going to engage Iran, to use diplomacy to steer it from its nuclear ambitions. And if he doesnt?
Netanyahu says hes going to pursue peace with the Palestinians, even though he wont commit to a two -state solution. And if he doesnt?
Right now, Obama and Netanyahu to say nothing of their administrations and of the media are focused on the and if he doesnt. Will Netanyahu be forced to go it alone against Iran if Obama cannot defang it? Will Obama be forced to pressure Israel (by, say, suspending weapons deliveries) if Israel doesnt make headway on the Palestinian front?
The focus on the ifs is diversionary. The test of US-Israel relations will be in what Obama and Netanyahu do. If Obama makes headway with Iran through his own unique way of wielding carrots and sticks, and if Netanyahu actually improves the Palestinian economy, there will be no reason for the dire scenarios that many on the American and Israeli side predict.
In actuality, the future of the US-Israel relationship is dependent not on what US and Israel do together, but on what they do separately. Obama neither needs nor will accept Israeli guidance in engaging Iran. Netanyahu might benefit from American intervention with the PA leadership in pursuing his plans for an improved Palestinian economy, but the bulk of the job is up to him. Read the related blog entry on Rocky Mountain Jew
None of this can hide the tension not far from the surface of the Obama-Netanyahu summit. First, there is great skepticism in Israel, and great apathy elsewhere, about Obamas plans to change Iran through diplomacy.
Second, Obama hasnt really tipped his hand yet on his terms of an Israel-Palestinian peace accord. That will not be known until his major speech to the Arab world from Cairo on June 4. By then, he will have met with Jordans King, Israels prime minister, and Egypts and the PAs presidents. What really drives Obama the longstanding special relationship between Israel and the US, or hopes of a vastly improved relationship with the Arab world, achieved with Israeli currency? We dont know yet.
One sign is not positive. A couple of hundred miles and a short flight from Israel, Obama will not take the occasion of his speech in Cairo to visit Israel. If he really saw the special relationship with Israel the way his precedessors did, he would send a signal: Our special outreach to the Arab world includes our special commitment to Israel.
Israeli diplomats say that so soon after a summit with Netanyahu, one should not read anything into the absence of a quick Obama visit to Israel from Cairo.
One only wonders whether the Israelis are merely accustoming themselves to a bitter pill.
Read the news coverage of the summit – with articles from both Israeli and American media.
