If the IJN’s online presidential poll is representative of the American population as a whole, Romney will be our next president, and by no small margin. We’ve been asking readers who they’ll be voting for on November 6, and why. There are several fundamental issues in this election, including the economy and healthcare. But for many in the Jewish community – including those who participated in our poll – America’s relationship with Israel is a top priority.
The majority (54.9%) believe that Romney is the better candidate, mostly because voters think that the Republican candidate “will be stronger on Israel” (27.1%) and “will apply his success in private business to the country” (25.7%).
Obama, however, leads in the area of healthcare, with 9.7% to Romney’s 1.4% saying they’re voting for the incumbent because “Obamacare will provide for our society as a whole”.
Our poll along with anecdotal evidence collected on the street and our Facebook page reveal growing support for Romney and the Republican Party, again, largely due to foreign policy issues. Most Jews who will vote for Romney will be those for whom Israel is their main concern – not domestic policy. As such, we predict – in line with the AJC’s findings – that the majority of the Jewish vote will as in past years go Democrat, however with a larger minority than ever voting Republican.
We don’t like to predict, but if pressed, our money is on Obama being re-elected. For those who may find that result disappointing, it’s important to remember that the campaign season is, in actual fact, a very poor predictor of a presidency. Once elected, the president must shift away from the rhetoric which allows for strong and immovable points of view and move on to the business of compromise. An incumbent is actually more likely to get things done, as the concern about re-election is permanently off the table. So an Obama second term will be different from his first.
One thing we’re confident about predicting: We’re certain that Obama has picked up some ideas from Romney’s campaign. And should Obama win tomorrow, don’t be surprised to see some of the Republican candidate’s visions worked into Obama’s second-term strategy.