He went for the symbol.
Not the substance.
Now, he has neither.
The he is President Barack Obama.
The symbol is Israeli settlements on the West Bank.
The substance is footprint and acknowledgement.
The footprint of Israeli settlements on the West Bank is roughly 9%. Most of the West Bank is empty. Palestinians could easily have a state there if they wanted.
The acknowledgement is the heart of the conflict. Now and for the last 130 years, Palestinians do not acknowledge the Jewish right to a Jewish state.
Obama went for the symbol, not the substance. He was going to show up all those who failed to bring Middle East peace. Yes, he was going to take Israel and Netanyahu down a notch, and browbeat them to the peace table. Obama would show em!
But now, the London Economist headlines its most recent report on Israel: Is Israel too strong for Barack Obama?
The Economist continues:
From the Palestinian and Arab point of view, his [Obamas] administration after grandly setting out to force the Jewish state to stop the building of Jewish settlements on Palestinian land as an early token of good faith, intended to bring Israelis and Palestinians back to negotiations has meekly capitulated to Israel.
When you fight the wrong battle, this happens.
Obama fought the wrong battle.
Facts: Settlements are a diversion. They take up very little of the West Bank. An equivalent amount of Israeli land will go to a Palestinian state anyway. Israel already agreed to this, in 2000. Land is not the issue. Palestinians like to say it is and Obama fell for it.
Now he is flummoxed. He said he would be The One to get Israel to stop all settlements as a prelude to abandoning them. That didnt happen. It wouldnt happen. It shouldnt happen unless you happen to believe that Israel has no right to be a Jewish state.
Obama avoided this substantive issue. He went for the symbol the settlements not the substance the Palestinian refusal to acknowledge Israels right to be Israel.
So now Obama is stuck. Israel was angry at Obama. The Palestinians are angry at Obama. And no peace talks are on the horizon let alone a satisfactory outcome.
Israel is not stopping its construction of thousands of homes already started in settlements. The PA says it wont come to the table until Israel stops all settlement construction the classic Palestinian anti-peace strategy that Obama bought, hook, line and sinker.
Obama has no choice but to do now what he should have done nine months ago. Now it will be lot harder to do. Still, Obama needs to tell the Palestinians:
Israeli settlements on nine percent of the West Bank do not prevent you from having a contiguous, independent state. Ill get Israel to cede to a Palestinian state the equivalent footprint in current Israeli land. Im not worried Israel already proposed this in 2000.
But you have to acknowledge Israel as a Jewish state, with a 3,000 year historical presence on the land. Are you interested?
Put that way, the real issue is joined.
The Palestinian answer will be yes or no. If yes, all can proceed to peace negotiations.
If no, then all the game-playing can stop. All the handwringing over settlements can stop. All the focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the key to solving other conflicts can stop. There is no joy like the clarification of uncertainties, goes an old Jewish saying.
If the Palestinians are not willing to make peace right now, then the focus must change to managing the conflict.
The ball is in the Palestinians court. By pretending otherwise that all is dependent on an Israeli cessation of or withdrawal from settlements Obama got himself into this predictable impasse.
As always, the issue remains: Do the Palestinians want peace, or want sympathy?
