[dropcap]Syrian[/dropcap] dictator Bashar Assad fled his country on Dec. 8 and his government has fallen to rebels, a swift, stunning collapse after 13 years of civil war.

The country is now enveloped in joy and turmoil as hundreds of thousands of refugees stream home, political prisoners go free and Syrians — along with the rest of the world — wonder what’s next.

What does this mean for Syria’s longtime adversary, Israel?

Assad’s fall came after Israel severely weakened several of Assad’s regional partners since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 invasion of Israel.

Israel’s offensive denied Assad the military help he has counted on from his partners for nearly two decades.

Since Assad’s fall, the Israeli offensive has now destroyed chemical and other weapons depots in Syria, as well as most of the Syrian air force — all in an effort to secure Israel by denying these weapons to the various actors in Syria today.

Israel also occupied the 155-square mile buffer zone between the Golan Heights and Syria over the weekend of Dec. 8 after the Syria army abandoned its positions there, where it and UN peacekeepers, together with Israel, kept the peace on the Heights since 1974; and after unknown actors occupied the buffer zone and looted UN peacekeeper offices there.

[dropcap]Hamas’[/dropcap] leader Yahya Sinwar, whom Israel killed on Oct. 16, thought his invasion of Israel would trigger a solidarity front against Israel by Iran, Hezbollah and others and thus put an end to Israel.

The opposite happened.

Syria’s Assad is gone. So are Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, as well as most of their soldiers and weapons, while Iran could not withstand an Israel air strike on Oct. 26 in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 attack on Israel — all since Oct. 7, 2023.

For Israel, Assad’s ouster means that yet another node of Iran’s so-called regional “Axis of Resistance” has been taken out.

Beyond that, Israeli leaders are broadcasting optimism about the fall of Assad, a key Iranian ally, while girding themselves for the ascension of the jihadist-linked group that toppled him.

Events are still unfolding rapidly, but in the immediate wake of Assad’s ouster, here’s what it means for Israel.

• Oct. 7 likely contributed to Assad’s downfall.

To remain in power during the Syrian civil war, Assad relied on several allies — including Hezbollah, Iran and Russia — because his brutal tactics alienated his own people, and his own army was hollowed out.

Now, Assad’s allies have been weakened or are fighting elsewhere.

• Russia, which shored up Assad in 2015 at a key moment in the civil war, has focused its firepower on Ukraine since invading that country nearly on Feb. 24, 2022.

• Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror group that is also funded by Iran, used to sent thousands of its fighters to Syria to battle on Assad’s behalf.

Following Hamas’ invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Hezbollah began shelling Israel’s northern border area, which Israel finally countered last September, destroying much of Hezbollah’s weapons and leadership, before a 60-day ceasefire signed Nov. 27.

• Iran attacked Israel twice (April 13 and Oct. 1, 2024), but its missiles were intercepted; while Israel’s retaliation Oct. 24 destroyed Iran’s air defenses.

• The Houthis, a Yemeni terror group, has rarely penetrated Israel’s air defenses.

[dropcap]Israeli[/dropcap] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s defeat “the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters.”

On Dec. 8, President Joe Biden said the Oct. 7, 2023 attack and Israel’s response led to Assad’s ouster. Iran, Hezbollah and Russia are “far weaker today than they were when I took office,” Biden said. After the Oct. 7 attack, he added, “Iran and its proxies chose to launch a multi-front war against Israel. That was a historic mistake on Iran’s part.”

President-elect Donald Trump, too, credited “Israel and its fighting success” contributing to the chain of events.

Assad’s downfall is a huge setback for Iran and its regional influence.

“Iran has suffered a strategic defeat with the fall of Assad,” tweeted Dennis Ross, a former US government official focused on the Middle East. He wrote that Iran’s “ring of fire around Israel is gone.”

He also noted that Iran transferred weapons to Hezbollah via Syria, which could now be im- possible.“Without the Syrian land/air bridge, it can’t easily rebuild a defeated Hezbollah. Its enormous investment in Syria has gone down the drain,” he wrote.

Rania Khalek, a journalist who has expressed sympathy for Iranian aims and criticized the Syrian rebels, tweeted, “The resistance axis era is over. Regionally Israel/US won this battle and we have to recognize that and reflect internally on why and how.”

Israeli parliamentary opposition leader Yair Lapid called for Israel to take the opportunity of a teetering Iran to “work toward a diplomatic achievement” that will work toward Israel’s interests in Gaza and the West Bank.

[dropcap]The[/dropcap] group that has led the offensive is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS, an Islamist organization that evolved out of the Nusra Front, a group that was affiliated with the terror group Al-Qaida and with the Islamic State.

“In terms of HTS’ stance on Israel, they’ve always been for the Palestinian cause,” said Aaron Zelin, a senior research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who wrote a book on HTS called The Age of Political Jihadism.

Zelin said HTS has celebrated Hamas attacks on Israel for years, including the Oct. 7 invasion, and has praised the Hamas leaders whom Israel has killed.

The group’s leader goes by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. The name indicates that the family of Jolani, 42, is from the Golan, the heights that Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and annexed in 1981.

Zelin said Jolani’s father was from the Golan before moving to Damascus and Saudi Arabia, where Jolani was born. That history has led to some trepidation in Israel.

“The events in Syria are far from a reason for celebration,” tweeted Amichai Chikli, Israel’s Diaspora affairs minister. “Despite the rebranding of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham . . . the bottom line is that most of Syria is now controlled by a subsidiary of al-Qaida and ISIS. We can’t let the jihadists establish themselves next to our towns.”

Zelin, however, called the group “somewhat pragmatic” and said, “I think that starting some with Israel would be suicidal from their perspective.”

A statement by HTS that Zelin posted to social media said the group was focused on “construction and progress” within Syria — and, “Liberated Syria looks forward to strengthening its relations with all brotherly and friendly countries on the basis of mutual respect and common interests.”

Israel and Syria haven’t fought a major war the 1973 Yom Kippur War, though Israel has bombed weapons shipments to Hezbollah in Syria numerous times.

Right now, the future of Syria’s government is unclear. Different rebel groups control different areas.

[dropcap]In[/dropcap] response, Netanyahu said, Israeli forces have entered the buffer zone between the two countries “to take action against possible threats.”

He said that Israel wants “neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria” if possible.

“The Syrian army abandoned its positions. We gave the Israeli army the order to take over these positions to ensure that no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel. This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found.”

The Israeli military said that the presence of troops in the buffer zone doesn’t mean that Israel is getting involved in whatever fighting is to come. “We emphasize that the IDF is not interfering with the internal events in Syria,” it said. n