HISTORY is on the side of Hamas, or so says Hamas.
History is not on the side of Israel, or so say many long-term strategic thinkers.
Hamas went to war with Israel, breaking an informal ceasefire by firing rockets into Israel, because Hamas saw an opening: a new Egypt. An Egypt ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood. Likewise, Tunisia. The Islamist wave was growing and Hamas saw an opening.
A chance to ride the wave.
To pick up credibility in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere.
A chance to acquire political legitimacy.
To make America turn her head.
To show Israel that the Middle East was conspiring against her. Radical Islam is replacing oil. As the West increasingly becomes energy-independent, the Middle East will threaten both the West and Israel with a new tactic: jihad.
Israel will be squeezed by radical Islam in the north (Hezbollah) and by radical Islam in the south (Hamas); and by the wider Islamic Arab Spring, not to mention Iran, which arms both Hezbollah and Iran.
History is not on the side of Israel.
Israel is being squeezed on all sides.
This is the trend of the future.
So runs the logic of the Hamas invitation to Israel to destroy much of the Hamas terrorist infrastructure in an eight-day war, Nov. 14-21, 2012.
As if to say: So we lose a few Palestinians. So we lose some buildings and weapons. Big deal. Weve shown Israel the wave of the future: jihad. It will eclipse Israel. History is on our side.
THIS logic actually ignores the arc of history, which is flowing in the exact opposite direction from Hamas.
Take note: History must be defined.
Is history an abstraction of feelings and moods? Or is history reality on the ground?
To Hamas, history is feelings and moods. Its who stands up for Hamas. Its who pats Hamas on the back. Who says: Youve got the right ideology. Take it to Israel. Youve got Israel on the run.
History, in the Hamas view, borders on fantasy.
History on the ground is something else. Observe:
In its War of Independence, Israel lost 6,000 people, fully one-tenth of its population.
In its next worst war, the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israel lost some 2,500 soldiers, out of a much larger population than in 1948.
In Israels next worst war, the second intifada, 2000-2005, Israel lost some 1,000 civilians, out of a still much larger population.
In this last, eight-day war, Israel lost six people.
Who, exactly, has whom on the run?
Whose suffering is decreased, and whose is increased, by the Arab insistence on attack after attack on Israel? In which direction does the arc of history seem to be bending?
Observe:
The Gross Domestic Product of Israel grows each year. Hamas economy stagnates. Israel, instead of complaining about its lack of natural resources, finds a way to compensate via high-tech. Israel has become the start-up nation. Hamas finds a way to blame Israel, and leave it at that.
Hamas (and other Palestinians) have become the only people in the world on permanent UN refugee status.
A few additional, inconvenient facts on the ground:
The Arab world, the growth of radical Islam notwithstanding, is still very much a nationalistic affair. Egyptians, however much they may embrace Islam, want their government to focus on improving Egypt, not Gaza. Egypt was only too pleased to see Israel take Gaza off its hands in 1967, and to see Israel suffer all the terrorism and death coming from Gaza.
Syria, obviously, is focused on Syria, not on the Palestinians.
The idea that nationalistic rebellions of the Arab Spring are done in the name of the Palestinians, or will redound to the Palestinians, is myopic. All of Hamas vaunted support in the Arab world is paper support. Words. Sentiment, at best.
As for Irans supply of longer-range missiles to Hamas, this only motivates Israel to develop harsher contingency plans against Hamas and Hezbollah, to manufacture better anti-missile missiles, and to boost its pressure on the US, the EU and the UN to take more direct steps against Irans nuclear program.
When Hamas tells you that history is on its side, you know that Hamas, like the Palestinian Authority, is still living in that dream world of a Middle East without Israel. Hamas is not focused on the here-and-now, on peace, on the acceptance of Israel and the great economic and cultural growth that would come from this.
When Hamas tells you that history is on its side, Hamas means: The wave of the future, which sees provoking a devastating Israeli attack as a victory, is the culture of death.
Watch out when history is on your side.
Copyright © 2012 by the Intermountain Jewish News
