By Ron Kampeas and Ben Sales
WASHINGTON — The last time President Joe Biden helped Israel repel an Iranian missile onslaught, he pressured Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate. “Take the win,” he said.
Now, after another barrage of missiles from Iran, Biden seems to be giving Israel a green light — with qualifications. Biden is sending Israel an advanced missile defense system, with 100 American troops to operate it.
Brett McGurk, the top Middle East official on the National Security Council, said on Oct. 9 in a High Holidays call with Jewish faith leaders that the Biden administration was “committed to holding Iran fully accountable for that attack,” and he suggested there would be more to come.
“This has our full complete attention, we will not waver in our commitment to the defense of Israel.I think you’ll actually see that play out here over the coming weeks.”
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops this week:
“As we have shown until now in this war and in all arenas — whoever attacks Israel will pay a price. Our strike will be powerful, precise, and above all — surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened.”
The change is due to the unprecedented breadth and potency of Iran’s attack, and the greater dangers it posed.
The attack in April was a mix of low- and high-impact airborne devices, with drones leaving Iranian airspace hours before they would arrive — giving Israel, the US and other allies a long heads-up to prepare. Last week’s attack, by contrast, was entirely ballistic missiles, giving Israel and the US only about 15 minutes of advance warning.
According to Richard Fontaine, the CEO of the Center for a New American Security, Biden is saying that “in the face of 200 ballistic missiles headed toward Israeli cities, Israel is fully within its rights and would be prudent to try to reestablish a degree of deterrence by demonstrating that those kinds of attacks impose costs on the attacker.”
David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the breadth of the Iranian attack on Oct. 1 led the Biden administration to conclude that retaliation was necessary.
“The US understands that Israel is going to hit back,” said Makovsky,
Nonetheless, he said, Biden was pressuring Israel not to target Iran’s oil fields, its nuclear reactors and targets that could result in mass civilian deaths.
Hitting military targets would have the bonus of harming Iranian facilities that are manufacturing weapons Russia is using against Ukraine, Makovsky said.
Michael Koplow, the chief policy director for the Israel Policy Forum, said he isn’t surprised that the Biden administration is qualifying its support for a retaliation.
US reluctance to fully back Israel is nothing new, he said. It’s “happening in the context of the US wanting to avert a wider regional war, which is always the US concern with regard to Iran and Israel, but all the more so when Israel is fighting in Gaza and is fighting in Lebanon.”
Another critical factor is the presidential election next month, Koplow said. What will Israel’s response do to global energy prices?
“Israel is going to push for the maximal possible response, which, again, is not a new dynamic, and the US is [going] to push Israel to dial things back.”
Jason Brodsky, the policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, said Israel and the US were at different points on what he called the “risk clock.”
“Israel right now is in a very risk-ready mood but the US is in a very risk-averse move. Israel is risk-ready because of the success it’s had in decapitating Hezbollah, and it senses some momentum right now in its operations, and the US is risk-averse because we’re on the verge of a presidential election.”
Israel may want to hit the most critical Iranian targets, including its nuclear sites, but is unlikely to do so without the requisite US munitions, including bunker busting bombs, Brodsky said. That would then require the delivery of the munitions.
“The Israelis will have to balance what the cost-benefit would be to targeting nuclear sites without US assistance, where they may be able to do damage, but not really destroy the program, as opposed to focusing their firepower on other targets where they could make more of an impact,” he said.
Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, said Netanyahu was seizing on a window of opportunity before the election, knowing Biden and his possible successor Kamala Harris would be loath to take action that could alienate voters.
“I think he sees that this has been a window for him, where the Biden administration doesn’t cut him off for fear of hurting Kamala Harris’s election,” she said.
Slavin said she did not expect Netanyahu to pay Biden any heed. If the prime minister would listen to anyone urging him to restrain his military response, it would be the Arab nations in the Persian Gulf that normalized relations with Israel — a legacy he hopes to preserve and expand.
“If I have any hope in this, frankly, it’s not with US diplomacy. It’s with the fact that the Gulf Cooperation Council [of Arab states] and Iran are now on speaking terms and are trying to de-escalate to the extent that they can. I would hope that GCC members, particularly those with diplomatic relations with Israel, would be cautioning Netanyahu against attacking in a massive way.”
Israeli leaders, in government and in the opposition, both say that the attack requires a commensurate response, and want the international community (that is, the US) to step up.
“There is only one force in the world fighting Iran right now,” Netanyahu told a visiting delegation of US Jewish leaders last week. “There’s only one force in the world that stands in Iran’s way to conquest. And that force is Israel. If we don’t fight, we die. But it’s not only our fight, it’s the free world’s fight, and I would say the civilized world’s fight.”
Benny Gantz, an opposition party leader, sent a similar message, writing in The New York Times that governments must engage militarily within Iran “aggressively and proactively.
“The time to act against Iran is now. It’s not only a matter of necessity for Israel but also one of strategic imperative for the region and moral clarity for the world for the sake of peace and prosperity in the Middle East.”
American troops will be stationed in Israel as the country prepares to retaliate against Iran.
They will operate the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, an advanced missile defense system.
Since last Oct. 7, the US has moved aircraft carriers to the region and devoted billions of dollars to military aid for Israel, but has yet to station troops on the ground in Israel as it fights a multi-front conflict.
“This action underscores the US’ ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel, and to defend Americans in Israel, from any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran,” Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement Oct. 13.
“It is part of the broader adjustments the US military has made in recent months, to support the defense of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias.”
The US sent troops to Israel under similar circumstances in 1991, during the Gulf War, to operate missile defense systems protecting Israel from an Iraqi strike.
On Tuesday, Oct. 15, Axios published a story based on a leaked brief from the Biden administration for leaders in the Israel government, expressing concern about the humanitarian situation and stating that arms delivery to Israeli may be halted if specific humanitarian efforts for Gazans are not met.
Later that night, Biden sent a letter to Congressional leadership reiterating his support for Israel in light of Iran’s Oct. 1 attack.
“Consistent with our longstanding commitment to Israel’s security and our public indication of our continuing efforts to protect Israel from Iranian and Iranian-aligned threats, I am reporting to you the posture of United States military forces to aid in Israel’s defense against these attacks and any further such attacks,” he wrote in the letter addressed to the Senate and House majority and minority leaders.
The letter detailed the US military support, including aircraft, destroyer and submarine capabilities deployed to the region.
“ United States forces will remain postured in the region to serve important national interests, including the protection of United States persons and property from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias, and to continue to support the defense of Israel, to which our commitment remains ironclad,” wrote Biden.
Also Tuesday, Axios published a story based on a leaked brief from the Biden administration for leaders in the Israel government, expressing concern about the humanitarian situation and stating that arms delivery to Israeli may be halted if specific humanitarian efforts for Gazans are not met.
The IJN contributed to this report.
