‘Ceasefire.’ Welcome in Syria only if it is not an excuse for Iran to increase its power and proximity to Israel.
President Trump’s Syria policy — to the extent that it is clear — may be endangering Israel, emboldening Iran and rewarding Russia for bad behavior.
Not to mention, rewarding a mass murderer, Bashar Assad.
Trump seemed to send a message to Assad last April when he launched cruise missiles in the aftermath of Assad’s use of chemical weapons. The message seemed to say that the US would not hesitate to act against Assad rather than give him a free pass to continue his mass murder of Syrian citizens.
However, recent Trump actions seem to send the opposite message — that the US will tolerate Assad and his war against his own country, even if this means increased danger to Israel via the presence of Iranian forces near Israel.
Russia, of course, has long favored Assad and turned a blind eye to his atrocities. The US has long favored cooperation with Russia in the war against ISIS, which, it is worth remembering, stands for “Islamic State in Syria.” As for US policy in Syria after the defeat of ISIS, a Trump general abruptly announced just last week that the US was ending its aid to relatively moderate, anti-Assad, Sunni Arab forces. Translation: Nothing stands in the way of Assad’s, Iran’s and Russia’s attempt to reunite at least part of Syria under the brutal Assad and to station Iranian troops in a reunited semi-state.
To station these troops close to Israel’s border.
Pardon us, but we can dispense with all of the Trump lovefests directed to Israel’s prime minister personally and to Israel in the abstract, if, on hard policy, Trump endangers Israel. A Jewish American ambassador to Israel, a Jewish son-in-law in charge of Israel-Palestinian peace, a Jewish envoy to Israel and the Palestinians — all the symbolism is worthless if Trump’s Syria policy endangers Israel’s security. What does Trump think the consequence is of watching the relatively moderate opposition to Assad go down for lack of continued American aid?
Make no mistake. Iran does not provide mere moral support to Assad. Nor does Iran want mere influence in a reunited Syria. Iran provides military support and wants a military presence in Syria. It is not good enough for Iran to have its proxy, Hezbollah, active against Israel (as if that were not dangerous enough). Iran will get what it wants if its actions and Russia’s action in Syria proceed unopposed.
“Ceasefire.” Its prospect has been bandied about for Syria. Who would oppose a ceasefire in this bloodied, tragic place? Don’t be fooled. “Ceasefire” may be misleading. It may mean an intentionally temporary cessation of hostilities. It may mean (as it often did during Israel’s own War of Independence in 1948) the opportunity for the enemy to regroup and emerge militarily stronger and more bellicose than before. Israel understands this perfectly well, as reported in last week’s IJN. Israel has stated: “This ceasefire must not enable the establishment of a military presence by Iran and its proxies in Syria in general and in southern Syria in particular.”
Obviously, there was no need for such a statement if such a development were not on the horizon.
When Russia involved itself in Syria, former President Obama made the terrible mistake of giving Russia free reign there. Obama flippantly and incorrectly predicted that only a quagmire awaited a Russian military presence in Syria. Trump may be making a parallel mistake by suing for a political settlement that leaves not only Assad in power, and not only a Russian military presence in Syria, but an Iranian one, too.
If this is the price for a united US-Russia front against ISIS, it is evidence of inept American negotiating. Trump prides himself on being a superior negotiator. If the best he can do is to enlist Russia in the fight against ISIS in return for Russian dominance in Syria, Trump is no negotiator, indeed.
If the best that the US can come up with in support of the Holocaust-driven mantra “Never Again” is American inaction over one-half million dead Syrians, then post-Holocaust remembrance has failed utterly.
It is not just Israel that would be endangered by Russian and Iranian political and military presence in a partially reunited Syria. So would Jordan, which has absorbed most of the Syrian refugees, and so would the Middle East generally. For the message would be perfectly clear: Russia can bully itself into any region it chooses.
It is not enough for the US to fight ISIS. It must also weaken or replace Assad, stand firm against any non-indigenous conquest of Syria, whether by Russia, Iran or anyone else.
Besides Jordan, the Kurds, Iraq and the Sunni Arabs in Syria would be directly endangered by a renewed, Assad-led, Russian- and Iranian-backed Syria state.
The Syrian civil war, begun in March, 2011, has long called for regime change, and offered the opportunity long before Russian involvement. Now matters are far more complicated, with an entirely positive outcome less likely. What is possible is firm opposition to Assad and his allies, at the least via support of Assad’s Sunni opposition. What is possible is to restrain Assad’s brutality. Trump’s abrupt cessassation of support for Assad’s opposition sends every wrong — and dangerous — signal.
Copyright © 2017 by the Intermountain Jewish News
