November, 2020 is the Democrats’ election to lose — and I think they will.
The science of prediction is risky, and I’m not particularly good at it. I’ve only placed one bet in my entire life — which I lost. However, I did predict that the NHL’s most recent expansion team, the Vegas Golden Knights, would be a contender, when everyone else said they would be abysmal. I turned out to be right about that.
The way I see it, as things stand, there is no way Donald Trump won’t be re-elected in November, 2020. It comes down to numbers. Is there anyone who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 that will not vote for him in 2020? Unlike many presidents, Trump has fulfilled much of what he ran on, from the domestic economy to foreign policy. His personal character wasn’t an issue for those voters then, so why would it be now?
Added to that number will be those who couldn’t pinch their noses in 2016 but now, seeing some of Trump’s policy successes, will.
Then there’s impeachment which, contrary to what many in the Democratic leadership solemnly promised, is a partisan affair. The charges — whittled down from a potential four to two, and not including the ‘quid pro quo’ which was so vociferously argued — will likely succeed not only in entrenching existing Trump supporters, but recruiting support from Republicans who in 2016 were put off by Trump’s character.
The counter: Democrats can win — if they get a slew of people to vote in 2020 who stayed away in 2016. There is no denying that opposition to Trump is passionate, especially regarding issues such as immigration and personal character. But does passion equal feet at the ballot box? Britain’s recent election certainly demonstrated that decibel level is not necessarily an accurate representation of what the majority think.
Another warning from Britain: An unelectable candidate won’t be elected. Thus far, it doesn’t appear that any Democratic candidate is viable. The party will need a new candidate if it wants to take the top seat.
I wouldn’t be shocked if 2020 becomes a rematch of 2016: Trump vs. Clinton.
Shana Goldberg may be reached at shana@ijn.com
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