Herb Keinon, the Jerusalem Post diplomatic correspondent who often travels with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was in Denver this week and spoke about the conflict in Syria.
He identified three silver linings for Israel against a backdrop of overall instability, uncertainty and thus possibly increased threat to Israel from the Syrian civil war. The Assads provided predictability. That is now gone. Keinon took note of the fact that these silver linings come at the expense of the tremendous humanitarian crisis that the civil war has wrought.
The first silver lining is the decimation of the Syrian army. Fourteen thousand of its soldiers have been killed and some 40,000 of its soldiers have gone AWOL. Syria has suffered the loss of much materiel and prestige. The Syrian army is no longer the threat to Israel it once was.
The second silver lining is the decreased power of Hezbollah. Given the decreased power of the Syrian army, there is a correspondingly weakened supply line for arms flowing from Iran to Hezbollah for use against Israel. Not to mention, Israel now feels free to bomb these arms supply lines when it deems them to be delivering particularly dangerous weapons. Besides, forces in the Syrian opposition have now undertaken military missions against Hezbollah. Hezbollah, though in possession of tens of thousands of missiles, is no longer a threat to Israel on the scope it once was.
The third and major silver lining is the decreased influence of Iran in the region. Syria was Iran’s major proxy, Iran’s vehicle for projecting force in the region. With a weakened Syria comes a weakened Iran.
Copyright © 2013 by the Intermountain Jewish News
