He’s right on sanctions, wrong on Yemen
When asked last week whether the US would cancel economic sanctions against Iran without Iran’s agreement to observe the terms of the nuclear deal as negotiated in the Obama administration, President Biden indicated not. Iran’s position is that the US must first cancel all sanctions against it, and then it will renegotiate the Iran deal.
Obviously, if the US first cancelled all sanctions, it would lose its leverage over Iran. Biden insists on Iran’s unconditional return to the terms of the deal; that is, Iran’s reversal of its current level of enrichment of nuclear centrifuges — which exceed the deal’s limits.
It is not realistic to say, “If the US cancelled the sanctions, and if Iran did not then return to the terms of the deal, the US can just reimpose the sanctions.” Sanctions take years to design and impose because of the great number of entities entailed. There are financial entities, with many technical requirements, and political entities, i.e., American allies, with their own ideas about whether to impose sanctions, and if so what kind and of what severity. These negotiations take years.
Color us pleased that Biden has indicated that the US will not allow Iran to define the conditions for the revival of the nuclear deal (even as we cannot conceive of any deal under which Iran would forswear nuclear weapons forever).
On the other hand, Biden has handed Iran a gift on a silver platter by withdrawing American support of Saudi Arabia against its fight against Iran’s attempt to take over another country, Yemen, to use as a launching pad against a US ally.
To be sure, the war in Yemen is brutal, excessively so in the hands of the Saudis, and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen is immediate and immense. These disasters, however, are just what Iran provokes and wants. The appropriate response is not to turn Yemen over to the tender mercies of Iran’s allies the Houthis, but to impose discipline on the Saudi forces and to address the humanitarian crisis as best as possible. This will not be an ideal solution, but it is much better than, against all evidence, removing the terrorist designation from the Houthis.
Observe: Iran also finances and to a large extent controls Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Syrian forces in Syria, and armed forces in Baghdad. Each and every one of these formidable military forces is bent on the destruction of American allies, not to mention that the pro-Iranian Houthi forces in Yemen give Iran, if not control, significant power at the entrance to the Red Sea.
It is harmful to American security and the security of its allies, such as Saudi Arabia, for the US to withdraw arms from the Saudi battle against the Houthis. The US is also “reviewing” its arms sales to the United Arab Emirates.
Biden’s thinking here is retrograde. The establishment of the Abraham Accords was facilitated by Israel’s strength. Peace comes from strength — the strength of Israel and the strength of the US in rewarding UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, each country in its own way. To weaken Saudi Arabia is to reduce the chances of peace in Yemen, not to increase them. To weaken Saudi Arabia and the UAE is also to send a message: The US, instead of rewarding its friends and punishing its enemies, does the opposite.
Against the US move on Yemen, it is not hard to image the thinking in Teheran. The ayatollahs must surely be asking themselves: “Why should we meet Biden’s demand to return to the Iran nuclear deal as a condition for the removal of America’s economic sanctions against us? Surely the US will come around — since it already has come around on Yemen.”
It is dangerous to look back at the Trump years monochromatically. Wherever else Trump succeeded or failed, he certainly had major, indeed unprecedented successes in the Middle East. They should not be squandered, whether out of anti-Trump sentiment, pro-Obama nostalgia, or any other reason. Nothing succeeds like success. For Biden to give up the war against Iran’s proxy in Yemen will spell the opposite: nothing fails like failure.
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