The logic for the American reentry into the Iran nuclear deal runs likes this:
The deal struck in 2015 during the Obama administration secured Iran’s commitment to reduce its production of nuclear centrifuges, and radically so. Trump threw that away when he cancelled the deal; Iran just went right back to making nuclear centrifuges, and at increased enrichment levels, no less.
The deal wasn’t perfect, but now we have a chance to improve it. We can not only get Iran to cut back on its nuclear centrifuges, but can widen the deal’s scope, and get Iran to cut down on its ballistic missile program.
Trump’s strategy —to impose severe sanctions on Iran — hasn’t worked. Iran responded not by coming a-crawling to the negotiation table, but by upping its nuclear enrichment instead.
Pouring salt on the wound, Trump stiffened Iran even more by assassinating Iran’s military leader, Qasem Soleimani, a counterproductive move.
For all these reasons, the path forward is to reenter negotiations with Iran, showing Iran that with a new sheriff is in town, Iran can escape the sanctions, take back its economy, take care of its people on the same, or almost the same, terms it already agreed to.
All this is wishful thinking. Here are the facts:
The nuclear deal did not halt Iran’s nuclear program. It delayed it. It had a sunset clause — in 2025. The best the Biden administration might do is to push back the date a few years. Iran will not end its nuclear program altogether, especially with Biden saying he’s prepared to lift the sanctions to get Iran to return to the 2015 deal (not to an improved one). Anything short of an end to Iran’s nuclear program is a meaningless diplomatic dance, as evidenced by the heightened warlike activities of, presumably, Israel against Iran, both in shipping lanes and in Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility. The intended victim of the Iran nuclear program sees no factual basis for optimism in any nuclear deal. Not to mention, Iran did not stop its sponsorship of terrorism in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon — all of which threatens Israel. Obama’s hope that his nuclear deal would motivate Iran to halt its terrorism was hopelessly naive.
The Trump sanctions against Iran have worked. Their goal was not to get Iran to return to the negotiating table. Iran wouldn’t lose face and do that. Their goal was to expose the vulnerabilities of the country and force them into unwise moves. This has happened. Iran, a messianically driven regime not known for a rational evaluation of its goals or methods, has responded to sanctions by intensifying its nuclear program. This, in turn, has encouraged an actor, presumably Israel, to diversify and intensify its weaponry against Iran. The most recent attack on Iran’s nuclear facility in Natanz, which reportedly destroyed some centrifuges, was achieved without a single bomb dropped or a reported life lost. An Iran with its back against the wall means an Iran vulnerable to attack.
Regardless of any terms in any deal, Iran will not willingly end its nuclear program. Israel knows this. Trump knew this. Today’s diplomats tacitly concede this. When asked to respond to the most recent attack on Iran’s nuclear facility, Germany’s foreign minister denounced it out of fear that it would derail diplomatic efforts. In other words, the diplomacy is for its own sake, not to end Iran’s nuclear program. The oft expressed idea about the free world’s approach to Iran, “no option is off the table,” is strictly rhetoric.
A rare exception was the assassination of Soleimani, a murderer of Americans. To call this counterproductive is to concede that it is more important to nurse Iran’s sensitivities than to save American lives. This approach works only in inverse proportion to the distance of an enemy of Iran from Iran. The further an enemy of Iran — such as the US — the easier it is to worry about sensitivities and to overlook the danger to Americans. The closer an enemy of Iran is to Iran — such as Israel — Iran’s sensitivities don’t count. Only objective danger counts.
That is why, for Israel, no option is off the table. Israel is prepared to counter the danger. The diplomats in the US, Europe, China and Russia are satisfied with this reality: the direct proportion between the growth in the danger from Iran and the myth of diplomatic efficacy on Iran’s messianic regime.
Copyright © 2021 by the Intermountain Jewish News
