How many times have you heard that Israel must withdraw from the entirety of the West Bank because otherwise Israel will not remain a democracy? The argument goes that Israel must renounce its rights to land that is just as much a part of the Biblical Land of Israel as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv because Palestinians who live in the West Bank will swamp the Jewish population.Then Israel will be faced with the unappetizing choice of staying a democracy with a Palestinian majority running and, of course, dismantling the Jewish state or of denying voting rights to Palestinians, thus dumping democracy. This dire choice has become a given. For the good of Israel, for the future of the Jewish state, Israel must give up the West Bank. Its a mantra. But is it true?
The latest demographic studies, carried out not by Israeli settlers on the West Bank and not even by Israelis or Jews at all point to a demographic implosion in Muslim societies. Translation: the much vaunted Arab population explosion is not happening. Birth rates in Muslim societies have dropped drastically. Who conducted the study? The UN, specifically, UNESCO.
Example: The fertility rate in Iran has dropped from 9 births per woman 30 years ago to 1.8 births in 2007. Quite a drop! In Saudi Arabia the fertility rate has dropped from eight per woman 30 years ago to less than 4 in 2007. In Egypt, the fertility rate has dropped from 7 per woman 30 years ago to less than 2.5 in 2007. A dramatic drop!
Both Jordan, which is demographically close to the West Bank, and Syria have seen fertility drop from 8 births per woman 30 years ago to 3.5 in 2007. Oh, and did we forget? Israels Jewish demography has been non-normative. Translation: the Israeli birthrate has gone up! It has risen by 40% between 1995 and 2007. In the land between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River (i.e., Israel and the West Bank), the number of Jewish births has increased from 69% of the total to 74% in 2006 and 75% in 2007. And this does not include immigration to Israel or Palestinian emigration from the West Bank.
Want some perspective? In 1900, Jews constituted 8% of the population in the land between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River. In 1947, the Jewish percentage was 33%. Today its 67%, and, as the UN notes, the birth trends are with Israel, not the Palestinians.
Argue the rights and wrongs of Jewish settlements on the Biblical land of the West Bank of the Jordan River any way you wish but leave out the dire scenario of an inevitable choice between a democratic and non-Jewish Israel, an oppressive and apartheid Israel, or a truncated and shrunken Israel. Its a false choice. The demographic trends disprove it.
