Everyone is so wrapped up in self-congratulatory rhetoric about new sanctions against Iran that they miss the forest for the trees.
The trees are impressive: new UN sanctions against Iran, new Congressional sanctions against Iran (not yet signed by President Obama), new restrictions on Obamas freedom to waive the sanctions, new international agreement on the danger of Iran. And, seemingly, some evidence that Iran is feeling the heat. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has responded testily, We are capable of defending our rights, and we will make them, including Mr. Obama who arrived with his slogan of change remorseful of any hostile action against us. So, everythings coming up roses on Iran, right? Iran is finally getting the message that the world means business about Irans pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Well, we hope so. We hope the sanctions stop Iran. But color us skeptical.
First, sanctions have not stopped Iran in the past. They have slowed Iran, but not stopped it. With its ever growing number of nuclear centrifuges, with its hidden nuclear facilities only accidentally discovered, with its thumbing its nose at International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, Iran has surely not been cowed into submission. Indeed, Iran seems to thrive on the opposition, becoming more determined to succeed as others become more determined to make it fail.
Second, the countries imposing the sanctions have not even enforced them on themselves. Shockingly, American companies have continued to do business with Iran, even under the previous sanctions. To change this will require a major change in mindset, and that will take time.
Third, Obama wants the right to exempt China and Russia from adhering to the sanctions. Given that Russia and China are Irans biggest suppliers of nuclear technology, this is not just a loophole, its the proverbial gaping hole big enough for a MAC truck to drive through.
Fourth, the leaders of Iran have no qualms about letting their people suffer as the price for the pursuit of nuclear weapons. The communists did this for more than four decades. Why should it be so hard for the West to grasp that evil governments will do this? That Irans government might be unpopular is not equivalent to the government being overthrown. This truism is masked by Western hopes of stoking discontent with the ruling clique in Iran. But discontent cannot dislodge dictators. Or, if it can, it takes decades which the world does not have as it faces an Iranian leadership determined to acquire nuclear weapons.
Fifth, and perhaps most important, the sanctions are designed as least as much to convince the countries imposing them that they are doing something as they are designed actually to stop Iran. We have long argued that Iran will not respond to sanctions because Iran is not a rational regime; and that delay in military action against Iran only exacerbates the dimensions of the inevitable military strike.
We freely concede that Israel (or the CIA or the Saudis or others) have successfully chipped away at Irans nuclear pursuit by assassinating Iranian scientists and otherwise disrupting Iranian research. This is the apparent reason why responsible sources have been saying for a decade or more that Iran is just a year or two away from the capacity to build a nuclear bomb. The sources were not lying. Rather, their predictions were predicated on an unrestricted Iranian pursuit something that intelligence agencies, at least in Israel, were unwilling to concede. Nonetheless bottom line Iran has been slowed but not stopped. These new sanctions will not stop Iran, either.
At some point soon, Iran will be so close to a bomb that the UN, the US and its anti-Iran sympathizers will have to concede that sanctions will have hurt Iran, but not prevented her from getting nuclear weapons. The sooner this is admitted, the smaller the ultimate brain damage we will all endure in stopping Iran militarily.
Meanwhile, we note for the record the ultimate cynicism of Iran.
First, Iran castigates Obama for not making good on his campaign pledge to change, yet, when Obama reached out to Iran, Iran spurned all of his overtures.
Second, Iran claims it is pursuing civilian nuclear technology, yet refuses to allow international inspections to verify this.
Third, Iran wraps itself in the mantle of international responsibility as a signator to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, taking the moral high ground in castigating Israel for not signing the treaty. Yet, Iran has snubbed the provisions of the treaty for years, and ignored the critical difference between Israel and Iran:
Iran threatens to annihilate Israel, just as Arab countries have for decades. Israel needs the weapons. Iran is threatened by no one. Iran does not need the weapons.
