Biden told Bibi not to attack Hezbollah. Bibi ignored him. Big boosts for Israel, Lebanon, Syria. Will Bibi stand up to Trump?
Hatred does not give up fast. Intelligence shows that after the major American blow against Iran’s nuclear program last June, Iran’s hate-based calculation against Israel switched from nuclear to missile development.
In response to Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear scientists and missile sites last June, Iran fired missiles against Israel — and damaged Israel. True enough, most of Iran’s missiles did not get past Israel’s anti-missile defenses, but some did. They caused extensive property damage and some deaths.
Iran rejoiced, snatching a way forward from the jaws of defeat. Reportedly, Iran has not done much to restore its nuclear program, but has poured energy into rebuilding its missiles and missile-launching sites. It is easier to build a missile than a nuclear weapon.
Add this in: Israel’s anti-missile weapons are expensive. They also get used up fast against Iran’s multiple missiles. Israel’s supply of anti-missile weapons was not exhausted last June, but it was depleted. That these miracle defensive weapons work well means nothing if Israel does not possess enough of them. The US Statement Dept. has fast-tracked a proposed sale of more missile interceptors to Israel, but the “fast-track” is only relative to the excruciatingly slow deliberations of Congress, not relative to actual interceptor production and delivery.
Apparently, the bottom line is this: Right now, Israel is confident it can counter the Iranian missile threat, and is confident that the Iranian rebuilding effort has not yet produced enough missiles to threaten Israel’s existence. So now is the time to act against Iran’s missile-rebuilding efforts.
Enter, Netanyahu’s Biden moment, which built up from Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas’ massacre in southern Israel. Hezbollah began shooting rockets — daily — at civilian sites in northern Israel. An entire segment of the country needed to evacuate. Israel was truncated. Not to mention, Hezbollah fired on Israel only a fraction of the reportedly 150,000 rockets it possessed. Which meant that Israel needed to act against Hezbollah in a major way when it could.
By September, 2024, Israel had gained the upper hand against Hamas. It could act against the Hezbollah threat. President Biden said: No! Don’t launch a full attack on Hezbollah. Biden feared an Iranian counterattack and an all out war in the Middle East.
Israel acted. Israel —
• destroyed all of Hezbollah’s long-range missiles;
• destroyed Hezbollah’s precision-guided weapons;
• destroyed Hezbollah’s Khader anti-ship cruise missiles;
• destroyed most of Hezbollah’s terror tunnels in southern Lebanon.
• killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Sept. 27, 2024, the US-designated terrorist who murdered hundreds of Americans;
• killed Nasrallah’s terrorist colleagues Karaki, Qubaisi, Aqil, al-Tawil, Hassan Samir, Shukr, who plotted the murder of Israelis and Americans;
• exposed Hezbollah’s lust for human shields by destroying its headquarters and weapons depots situated underneath Lebanese homes and other civilian locations.
And . . . no all out war broke out. By decimating Hezbollah, Israel made not only Israel safer, it made Lebanon safer — and made it possible for Syrian rebels to bring down the wicked Assad regime, which had the blood of roughly one million Syrians on its hands since the uprising of March, 2011.
Israel’s rejection of Biden’s warning not to attack Hezbollah precipitated the severe weakening of Syria, since Iran was too preoccupied with Israel to help Assad.
Iran weakened. Syria liberated. Northern Israel repopulated by some 60,000 uprooted Israelis. Lebanon given the opportunity to retake its own country from the Hezbollah hoodlums who infiltrated countless Lebanese families, businesses and government positions — the stark reality exposed by Israel’s amazing Pager and Walkie Talkie attacks on Sept. 17-18, 2024.
All these benefits were the byproducts of Israel’s decision not to listen to the American president.
Now Israel faces a similar scenario: a major threat from Iran, and a major arm-twisting by an American president to do nothing.
If Israel had privileged Biden’s diplomacy over its own survival, Hezbollah would still be the major terrorist force adjacent to Israel and the major Iranian proxy in the Middle East. Now another American president, Donald Trump, is telling Israel to privilege his diplomacy over Israel’s own survival.
Possibly, President Trump has decided to act against Iran as he promised Iran’s heroic protesters (“help is on the way”). But as things stand now, Trump has gathered an American “armada” near Iran to pressure Iran to bend to his demands, which are Israel’s demands: no nuclear program, no missile threat.
For Trump, this is a negotiation. For Israel, this is a ticking bomb. Trump has time. Israel doesn’t. Trump talks about his patient outlasting of Venezuela’s Maduro — who did not threaten US security the same way. Iran threatens the security of Israel. Iran is not suspending its missile program as negotiations with Trump drag on.
Facts:
Iran hates Israel; Iran wants to destroy Israel.
Iran is working to build the weapons to destroy Israel.
Iran was humiliated by the Israeli and American attacks last June. Humiliation is the worst defeat in Iran’s theological culture.
Iran is irrational — Trump’s threats are less important to Iran than its theology — its willingness to sacrifice the well being of its citizens on the altar of its Israel hate.
Negotiations with Iran are fantasy negotiations — Iran’s long deployed way of buying time. Evil doesn’t negotiate. Trump saw that last June. Nothing in Iran has changed.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult moment.
• Trump discards anyone whom he thinks crosses him.
• Israel depends on the US for weaponry (a mistake that Israel is beginning to wake up to).
• Iran is confident it can radically harm Israel because Iran wrought damage against Israel last June and Israel’s air defenses are not unlimited.
Is the following true? Israel attacked Iran last June, and only after the successful Israeli attack did Trump decide to join in and launch bunker-buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear sites. Whatever the case then, Netanyahu faces a difficult moment now as Trump seems reluctant to strike Iran or to approve of an Israeli strike.
Is the following true? Trump is engaged in an elaborate feint, awaiting only the right strategic moment to strike Iran’s missile production and launch sites and leadership, or to allow Israel to do so.
Israel’s existence is at stake.
So are the lives and safety of tens of millions of Iranians. Just as Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah radically recast hopes for freedom in Lebanon and Syria, the same can be true for Iran.
© IJN 2026
