JERUSALEM — As the sun set on the fourth night of Chanukah in Israel on Dec. 21, incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was expected to announce that he had successfully formed his new coalition government after more than five weeks of negotiations.
The political opposition to Israel’s new government is reflected in a protest in Tel Aviv, Dec. 17, 2022. (Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu Agency via Getty)
There are some asterisks: Netanyahu hasn’t officially signed any coalition deals yet with other parties (he has until 48 hours before the new government is seated Jan. 2 to do so), and some of his expected new partners are first demanding new legislation that has been delayed until after coalition talks.
But Netanyahu seems confident that he has formed a coalition that will grant him a comfortable majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
Assuming he pulls it off before the swearing-in date, Israel seems set to welcome a new set of ministerss, some of them controversial among liberal Diaspora Jewish groups.
They say that Israel’s status as a pluralistic Jewish and democratic state could be at risk, depending on what policies are actually put in place.
Who’s in the new government?
Netanyahu’s coalition includes people whom liberal Jewish groups in the Diaspora oppose, whom the incoming prime minister needs on his team in order to hold a governing majority.
Chief among them those who worry the liberal Jewish groups is Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit party, who will likely hold a newly created ministry position that gives him power over the state’s police force. A onetime follower of Rabbi Meir Kahane, who was assassinated in 1990, Ben-Gvir has been convicted of incitement over his past support of Israeli terrorist groups and comments about Israel’s Arab population.
He has also encouraged demonstrations on the Temple Mount, which are often met with violence by Islamic extremists, leaving analysts worried about what he would do once placed in control of the state’s police force.
The new government will include Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionist party, who has been accused by Israeli security forces in the past of plotting attacks against Palestinians.
Like Ben-Gvir, Smotrich will also likely be given a newly created ministership role in Netanyahu’s government to oversee Jewish com- munities in the West Bank — a move which liberal groups say would lead to de facto annexation.
Smotrich will also hold the key ministerial position of finance minister.
He has organized opposition to pride parades.
Avi Maoz, head of the Noam party, is anti LGBTQ and has condemned all liberal forms of Judaism.
Maoz would headline a new “National Jewish Identity” education position with control over certain curricula in schools.
Aryeh Deri, head of the haredi Orthodox Shas party, is set to become interior and health minister pending new legislation.
Deri has been convicted of tax fraud and served 22 months in prison in 2002 — which would bar him from holding a ministry position, unless Netanyahu can pass a law allowing him to serve.
Netanyahu himself is embroiled in a years-long corruption trial; he has not been convicted.
Who’s not in?
Outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid, outgoing Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, outgoing Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai and a coalition of business executives say that the new laws, in the hands of the new government, would turn Israel into an illiberal state.
Netanyahu himself made disparaging remarks about the outgoing government when he was in the opposition — a reflection of the extreme rhetoric that is typical in Israel on many sides of the spectrum.
Benny Gantz — the outgoing defense minister and Netanyahu’s former rival-turned-unlikely-political-partner — had been floated as a wild card coalition contender in the wake of this fall’s election: A unity government involving his Blue and White party and Likud would reduce Netanyahu’s need to accommodate far-right parties. But Gantz has not been mentioned in recent reporting on Netanyahu’s coalition negotiations.
Possible changes ahead
As a precondition to some of his coalition deals, Netanyahu is pushing laws through the Knesset that grant new powers to his incoming ministers, allowing them expanded oversight of everything from law enforcement to Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
The Shas party is demanding an overhaul of the Israeli court system that would restore the independence of rabbinic judges.
Netanyahu’s opposition bloc, which successfully ousted him in 2021 only to see its own coalition crumble a year later, is still in power through the end of the year and tried to delay Netanyahu’s moves with parliamentary gamesmanship this week.
While the opposition weakened some of the laws Netanyahu sought to pass, it seems to have failed to prevent the incoming PM’s ability to form a government.
Among other changes that could be on the table:
Removing the “grandchild clause,” a rule that allows anyone with at least one Jewish grandparent to apply for Israeli citizenship, from the country’s Law of Return, though haredi Orthodox parties have promised to back off trying to change the Law of Return in the short-term.
Passing a law not to recognize non-Orthodox converts to Judaism as Israeli citizens, reversing a recent high court decision;
Scuttling long-in-the-works plans to create a permanent egalitarian prayer space at the Western Wall.
Israeli-Palestinian peace
With sustained Palestinian terrorism, including the Palestinian Authority’s “pay for slay” program and Hamas’ firing of missiles on Israeli civilians, most of the Israeli public has become pessimistic about the possibility of a two state solution.
This is why the political right has dominated Israeli elections in the past 25 years, and why the once all powerful Labor Party now has no representation in the Knesset.
With Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and other new ministers opposed to Palestinian statehood, the chances of restarting viable negotiations for a two-state solution in the near future are slim to nil.
Netanyahu says that Israel must maintain a security presence in Palestinian territories under a permanent Israeli-Palestinian peace. The Palestinian Authority has refused.
Security concerns were a majorreason why Israel’s recent elections played out so well for the right wing. There is little incentive for the new government to engage in peace talks.
One of the carrots Netanyahu offered to his incoming coalition members was that the Israeli government would formally recognize a greater number of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
Netanyahu’s discussions with other Arab nations, however, continue unabated. Seeking to build off of the success of the Abraham Accords, he recently hinted that one or more other Arab countries may soon join the normalization agreements.
The US response
President Joe Biden has often boasted of his decades-long “friendship” with Netanyahu. The administration has said it will judge the new government by what it does.
In interviews with American media, Netanyahu has insisted that he is fully in control of his government.
The Jewish Federations of North America and the American Jewish Committee have said they would wait until the new government is formed to make any judgments.
Other groups, like B’nai Brith International and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, have characterized the new government as just the latest in a long line of Israeli governments they have successfully worked with.
Any changes to the Law of Return, in particular, would be catastrophic for the relationship between Israel and American Jews, warns Union for Reform Judaism President Rabbi Rick Jacobs.
