Whether or not this deal is a good deal for the US and the other P5+1 nations, whether or not this deal does put Iran’s nuclear program on hold, as Messrs. Obama & co. would have us believe, serious geopolitical consequences will be felt, particularly among Iran’s closest neighbors.
Most obviously, Israel. Everyone knows that the Prime Minister of Israel, backed by pretty much the entire gamut of Israel’s political leadership, is mortally concerned about Iran, a nation that openly calls for Israel’s destruction, acquiring nuclear capabilities. As the years have passed, as the nuclear program progressed, it’s become technically more difficult to envision a quick military strike against Iran, as the facilities are too deep underground. So Israel is worried. Very worried. And the question is, should the US, one of Israel’s strongest allies, done more to allay Israel’s fears? Or, more fundamentally, incorporated Israel’s fears into its approach to Iran?
Then there’s all of Iran’s Sunni neighbors, in particular another major US ally, Saudi Arabia. For those who don’t know, the vast majority of the Arab Middle East despises Persian Iran and is deeply troubled by the Islamic State’s intimations at becoming a hegemonic power in the region. Being the only country with nuclear capabilities only helps Iran reach its goal — the exact opposite of what countries like Saudi want. This is a region already confronted by a rising ISIS, an ongoing civil war in Syria and multiple terrorist groups — many of whom are sponsored by Iran. Which brings us to the next point.
When sanctions are lifted, Iran will see a massive influx of cash, about $100 billion according to Obama’s estimates. Proponents of the deal try to assure us, in their eye a gullible public, that these funds will all be put to good use, in Iran. It should be noted, these funds becoming available are not tied to any specific usage. It’s highly possible that most of it will funnel to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council, which, for all intents and purposes, runs the Iranian economy. Saudi commentators worry that the funds will bolster Iran’s vision of becoming a hegemonic power. One way of doing so would be for Iran to re-start trafficking funds to its terrorist clients, such as Hezbollah, the Syrian regime and/or Hamas. The crippling sanctions meant there was less money in recent years for their pals.
July 14, the day the world became a safe place? More like, the day the US threw all of its Middle Eastern allies under the bus.