After Israel’s decisive strikes against Hezbollah’s leaders and weapons’ depots last September-November, Israeli and Lebanese negotiators met last week, in Lebanon to negotiate the exact border dividing Lebanon from Israel.
It is a negotiation that would be impossible if Hezbollah still ruled southern Lebanon.
Israeli negotiators are seeeking a full fledged peace treaty with Lebanon.
Here’s where things stand now — and what could happen next.
Israel and Lebanon, longtime enemies
Israel and Lebanon share much in common: Both are small, ethnically diverse Levantine countries with histories stretching back to the Bible that were founded in the 1940s.
The Lebanese capital of Beirut and Haifa, Israel’s third-largest city, are only about 80 miles apart, both on the Mediterranean coast. For a brief period around WW II, train tracks ran between the two cities.
But over the past 75 years, the vast majority of Israelis to set foot in Lebanon have been wearing army uniforms. The countries do not have diplomatic relations and have repeatedly been at war.
Three major Israel-Lebanon wars
The major conflict came in 1982, when Israel invaded Lebanon, mounting a broad offensive to root out the Beirut-based Palestine Liberation Organization with the goal of stopping the PLO terrorist attacks on Israel’s northern border communities.
Lebanon was in the midst of its own civil war, and Israel allied with Lebanese Christian militia forces. The Christians carried out massacres in the Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila in Beirut.
Israel drove out the the PLO, which fled to Tunisia.
Israel withdrew from much of Lebanon, but found a new foe in southern Lebanon: the terror group Hezbollah, which killed both Israeli and American troops in the country.
Hezbollah grew to become a “state-within-a-state” and won seats in Lebanese parliament.
Israel unilaterally withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, but Hezbollah continued its terrorist attacks on Israel.
In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought again in 2006. That month-long war is viewed in Israel as a debacle with high casualties and Hezbollah effectively remaining entrenched on the southern border. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 called on Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah ignored the resolution and built up a massive military presence there.
On Oct. 8, 2023, attack, Hezbollah began what would become daily missile attacks on Israel, which forced the wide evacuation of civilians from northern Israel.
Israel responded with tit-for-tat airstrikes, but then invaded Lebanon last September, fighting a two-month ground and air conflict that killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership and destroyed much of its weaponry.
Hezbollah weakened.
The Israeli invasion also weakened Hezbollah in other ways.
For years, Hezbollah had helped prop up the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, which it could no longer do that after losing to Israel. Syria collapsed on Dec. 8, 2024.
Israel has also battered Iran, Hezbollah’s chief sponsor, by taking out its air defenses.
Israel began withdrawing from Lebanon under a ceasefire in late November, and the border has been largely quiet since then.
The ceasefire calls for the Lebanese army to take control of southern Lebanon, replacing Hezbollah. Israel contends that has not happened and retain troops in Lebanon because Hezbollah is still operating in the area, albeit on a much reduced basis.
The election of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in January — ending two years of deadlock in the political system, which is divided between the country’s Christians and Muslims — was seen as a further sign of Hezbollah’s weakness. The group’s preferred candidate dropped out of the election.
Aoun wants Israel to withdraw from his country. But his administration also marks an opportunity for building relations between the two longtime foes.
Talks focus on technical issues — for now.
In 2022, Israel and Lebanon negotiated a maritime border.
The current talks could be much more significant.
Last week, Israeli, French, US and Lebanese negotiators met in Naqoura, Lebanon for talks that Morgan Ortagus, the American deputy presidential special envoy, said would focus on “diplomatically resolving several outstanding issues.” Among them:
• Releasing Lebanese prisoners held by Israel;
• Resolving the remaining border disputes;
• Agreeing on an Israeli military withdrawal.
Israel’s prime minister’s office announced that Israel was releasing the five prisoners “in coordination with the US and as a gesture to the new President of Lebanon.”
Pitfalls and promise.
A land border is not a peace treaty, and establishing relations between two countries that have seen each other as enemies for more than 75 years could fail for many reasons. Among them:
• Remnants of Hezbollah resume attacks on Israel.
• Israel required a security presence in southern Lebanon to counter continued Hezbollah activity there.
However, Hezbollah has previously cited disputed border areas (a few square miles) to justify its attacks on Israel. The New York Times quoted Beirut-based analyst Mohanad Hage Ali, who said, “If a deal on the border is done, Hezbollah’s alibi will be gone.”
Israel and the US seek another “Abraham Accords” type of peace treaty between Israel and Lebanon.
Israel never fought a war with any one of the previous signators of the Abraham Accords, nor with Saudi Arabia.
That is not the case with Lebanon. A peace treaty with Lebanon, if it were to hold, would be an actual peace — an end to decades of attacks, bombings and invasions.
It would also be Israel’s first treaty with a country on its border since the 1994 treaty with Jordan, which had also not fought Israel for years at that point.
An Israeli-Lebanese deal would also mean that Israel would have relations with three of the four countries bordering it.
Will Israelis be able to board a train to sip coffee in Beirut? Probably not soon. But this week’s talks may open the door.
