Make it quick, as with Hezbollah; not long, as with Hamas
Let Israel learn from what went wrong with its international standing following the Hamas attack, Oct. 7.
At first the world understood. Videos of Oct. 7 spoke for themselves. “Self-defense” —as a concept — was understood. Things changed quickly enough because self-defense against Hamas meant fighting an enemy that had ensconced itself in hospitals, schools, homes and tunnels; that declared Palestinians killed in its war with Israel “necessary sacrifices”; that diverted food aid away from civilians in Gaza; and that enjoyed friendly media.
Evil is simple. Oct. 7 was understood. Fighting evil is not simple. Israel’s standing internationally plummeted.
This was not all the doing of Israel. It was also the doing of the Biden administration which, after Israel destroyed most of Hamas’ battalions, slow-walked the weapons to enable Israel to finish off Hamas before Hamas could regroup.
This is a critical lesson for the Trump administration. Israel must be able to do its work in Iran as quickly — and completely — as possible. The major hold-up is the US’ refusal to provide Israel with the the advanced weaponry it needs to attack all of Iran’s nuclear facilities. This refusal will simply extend the war as Israel seeks other, more dangerous, more time-consuming ways to finish the job. Israel needs the bunker busters (and the advanced fighter jets to carry them) that are capable of destroying Iran’s most concentrated nuclear effort at Fordow. If Trump wants this war to end as soon as possible, it’s up to Trump.
Scratch the idea that Trump would aid only Israel by taking out Fordow. With Iran’s nuclear program ended, with Iran severely weakened, Iran’s worth to Russia and China would nosedive. Right now, Iranian oil enables Russia to evade sanctions and boosts China. With Fordow gone and Iran radically diminished, the US could readily demand a radical cut in Iran’s supply of oil to Russia. The cost to Iran of not complying would be obvious: the credible threat of another attack.
The ascendancy of the US over Russia and China would radically rise.
End of Fordow: a win-win for Israel and the US. Trump has a chance to redirect history. Will he seize the opportunity?
Broadly, the world supports Israel’s attack on Iran because Iran has made its intentions toward Israel, Europe and its Sunni neighbors crystal clear. The world understands: One cannot tolerate a nuclear enemy bent on one’s destruction. But the world has a short memory. Let Israel do what it needs to do and let the US do what it needs to do — destroy Fordow and the other nuclear locations. Then go home.
Does this mean that the ayatollahs will stay in power? Does this mean that Iran will try to rebuild its nuclear program from scratch? Say that the answer to both questions is yes. This is where the lessons from another major front come in: Hezbollah.
In its war with Hezbollah last fall, Israel did not destroy Hezbollah. Israel made a ceasefire with Lebanon, under which Hezbollah is not allowed to rebuild its weaponry. But when Hezbollah does — not a surprise —Israel attacks these new weapon programs of Hezbollah.
This is a model that works for Israel. It’s a model in three stages.
1. Decapitate Hezbollah’s leadership and its weaponry. Done.
2. Agree to a ceasefire, which leaves a radically weakened Hezbollah in place. Done.
3. Retain freedom to respond to a weakened Hezbollah’s attempts to rebuild militarily; and retain the freedom to operate in southern Lebanon if Hezbollah returns. Done.
It’s a model that can apply to Iran — provided that Israel is able to end Iran’s nuclear program. As we say, that ultimately is on the US.
This three-stage model may also be applied by Israel to Hamas.
1. Decapitation of Hamas. Done.
2. Ceasefire. That’s necessary.
3. Continued control of Gaza’s borders and terror-smuggling tunnels, and Israeli attacks (but not from within Gaza) against Hamas’ attempts to rebuild militarily. Here is where Israel could be in a much better position.
Right now, Israel is in a quagmire in Gaza. Israel stretches its troops too thin. Israel’s long war polarizes the country and complicates the release of hostages. Israel alienates its allies. Israel says that all this is the price Israel must pay, for otherwise, Hamas will not be destroyed. And if not destroyed, Hamas will come back and do Oct. 7 all over again.
That scenario — the fear of an Oct. 7 repeat by Hamas — is not realistic, on three grounds.
First, the war against Hamas has an emotional component, given the atrocities of Oct. 7. But Hezbollah is no different from Hamas. The same cold calculus behind Israel’s ceasefire vis-a-vis Hezbollah should govern its policy toward Hamas. Emotion is not a viable policy driver.
Second, Hamas is too weak to do another Oct. 7. Its battalions are gone. Its leadership is virtually gone. Its weaponry is mostly gone. Its weapons’ supplier — Iran — is severely weakened. Its credibility is slowly crumbling among Gazans.
Third, if Hamas were to try to rearm and regroup — not a surprise —Israel can treat Hamas just as it now treats Hezbollah: attack it while is weak, as it begins to rearm. And remember, Hamas has lost the element of surprise.
Israel has not eliminated the danger from Hezbollah, but Israel has severely curtailed it. That is best way to treat Hamas, given all the negatives that attach to Israel’s entirely legitimate effort to wipe out Hamas.
This is also the model for Iran — provided that Israel continues to be successful in its war against Iran’s nuclear, missile and drone programs. For that success, we must continue to pray. We must continue to pray for the population of Israel — for the people there whom so many of our readers know personally and for all the people in the country, Jewish and non-Jewish, who are now under attack and have suffered losses.
Which bring us to the final point worth making while we still have the world’s attention: Israel attacks military sites and related structures in Iran. Iran attacks civilians: Jewish, Christian, it doesn’t make any difference to Iran. Iran wants to kills Israelis — and Israel. That is why there is war.
© IJN 2025
