Fanatical Iran’s nuclear program was devastated. Iran’s fanatical idea was not.
Is the Iranian nuclear program dead? The short answer is “no,” even if it was “obliterated.”
Is the Iranian nuclear program on life support? The short answer is “yes,” even if it was not “obliterated.”
We are not scientists, let alone nuclear scientists, but the reality is that not the Americans, not the Israelis and not the Iranians have thoroughly explored the attacked nuclear sites to evaluate the extent of the damage there. At this early stage after the attacks, no one has solid information, not to mention that the agencies issuing statements on the matter contradict each other.
Meaning: Intelligent discussion of the fate of Iran’s nuclear program must be based on open source material.
A critical element in that material is overlooked in virtually all evaluations of the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program. What pops up in virtually every news report is “centrifuges.” Were they destroyed in whole or in part? Did Iran move them away from Fordow in advance of the American attacks? Does Iran have a secret site no one knows about? Does Iran have the wherewithal to rebuild centrifuges, and if so, how fast?
Critical questions, to be sure. But not the only critical questions, not by far. Centrifuges a nuclear weapon does not make. The nuclear material produced by centrifuges is essential to a nuclear bomb, but not sufficient. Even if every centrifuge in Fordow survived the American attack, whether underground or by virtue of having been moved elsewhere in advance of the American attack, the nuclear material produced by the centrifuges needs to be converted into a specialized metal to make a nuclear bomb.
That conversion process was centralized in the Iran’s Natanz site. By all accounts, the Natanz site was destroyed (or almost completely destroyed) by Israel. Israel did not need a stealth bomber to do it. The phenomenal and essential participation of the US in attacking Fordow notwithstanding, and not- withstanding our tremendous gratitude to the US for doing so, Israel took out one essential element in the Iranian nuclear program by itself.
We don’t know, and no one knows, how long it would take Iran to reconstruct that site, but it would have to start from, or close to, ground zero.
Make no mistake. Iran will move to reconstruct that site and the rest of its nuclear program. That is why we answer “no” as to whether Iran’s nuclear program is dead.
This is not to underplay the tremendous achievements of both Israel and the US in the 12-day war against Iran’s nuclear sites, missile launchers, air defense systems, nuclear scientists and military leaders. All this was an indispensable move to stop Iran from producing a nuclear bomb in short order.
All this, however, did not alter the evil intent of the Iranian regime. Iran’s tremendous military losses did not soften its hatred of America (“the Great Satan”) or of Israel (“the Little Satan”). If anything, Iran’s military losses and its profound humiliation only fortified its desire to actualize its religion-based evil that it so fanatically craves.
Will more attacks against future Iranian nuclear effort be necessary? Possibly. If so, our fervent hope is that neither the US nor Israel will wait to the last minute, such that far more restricted attacks could do the job.
Or, possibly, Trump will strong-arm Iran to the negotiating table. For now at least, that seems unlikely.
Or, possibly, regime change will ensue. That is anyone’s guess, but even if there is regime change, this would not necessarily guarantee an Iranian renunciation of nuclear ambitions. Given the totalitarian nature of Iran’s regime, it is not known what Iranian popular opinion is. Is it set against the repressive Iranian regime and against an Iranian nuclear program?
Or, is it only set against the repressive regime, but embraces the nuclear program?
Given that Iran’s regime remains in power, is the Iranian threat to Israel, the Middle East, Europe and the Middle East ended? The short answer is “no.”
That said, the world is much safer today than it was on June 12, 2025, the day before Israel’s surprise, preemptive, historic attack on Iran.
Two more critical questions:
First, The regime in Iran has exploited its military defeat to stiffen its repression of the Iranian population. Will the world do nothing?
Second, Israel itself is a nuclear power. Israel, too, could have taken out Fordow — at an unthinkable price. But this ultimate option always stands behind any attempt to deny Israel the freedom to act against Iran —
• if and when Iran rebuilds its nuclear program, not even bothering to lie about it, as it did to UN nuclear inspectors for 20 years;
• if and when Israel’s existence is in danger;
• if and when Israel does not face another American president as strong as Trump and another Israeli prime minister as strong as Netanyahu. Warts and all, they came through.
It may not be the last time necessary.
Meanwhile, we must turn to the Holy One in Hallel, in praise and gratitude for the miracles we have witnessed.
© IJN 2025
