I’ve been following the progression of the coronavirus since my colleague Andrea Jacobs first heard it reported in late December, 2019 — which seems so long ago.
It has been remarkable to watch the panic set in, especially when one considers that compared to other recent epidemics, COVID-19’s death rate thus far is relatively low.
Coincidentally, in early January, I was reading Hisham Matar’s A Month in Siena, a beautiful volume about Sienese art. One of the paintings he discusses highlights the Black Death, and Matar writes that in urban centers of the time it was common for 50% of the population to die!
COVID-19’s mortality rate is much lower than recent epidemics like MERS or SARS and certainly Ebola, but it is also elevated, as it is based on diagnosed cases only. There are likely thousands of cases that are undiagnosed and never will be.
That doesn’t mean a response isn’t necessary. With no vaccine or immunity, containment and control are essential.
But how to respond gets tricky. Do you shut everything down, as China did? That’s clearly the most effective way to contain the spread.
Do you address only the seemingly affected areas? Italy did that and ended up exporting the virus throughout Europe, and overseas, including here in the US and even Colorado.
I’m wondering, though, whether some countries have taken a more Darwinian approach. Are some governments thinking: Every year, people get sick — and die — from viruses. The mortality rate of COVID-19 is currently very low, so a strong reaction is not worth the disruption to the society. Pardon my tin foil hat, but why does Russia have so few cases?
There’s another aspect to the panic: social media, which didn’t exist in their current format during SARS or MERS. I know that when I recently took two days off from following coronavirus, I felt much better.
I’m trying to ascertain the reasonable medium between “ignorance is bliss” and “knowledge is power.”
Shana Goldberg may be reached at [email protected].
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