Remember a few weeks ago when we blogged about UN Resolution 377, which enables the UN’s General Assembly to circumvent, or overrule, Security Council votes? The information came to us from Gil Yaron, an Israeli/German/Canadian Middle East analyst, who, by the way, also happens to be a doctor. He spoke in Zurich just after Netanyahu concluded his trip to the US, and his take on events was slightly different to that of the mainstream US Jewish media.
Yaron made it frighteningly clear that in regards to geopolitics, what the Arab Spring has demonstrated is that the US really is no longer a major player in the Middle East, and that its president, Barack Obama, has little influence in the region. (A recent study conducted by the Pew Global Attitudes Project backs this up.) For Israel, this means two things: One, it calls into question the importance or significance of Israel having “superpower” backing, when the US is no longer a superpower in the region. And second, the weakened US position has left a power gap in the region, which Iran has been trying its hardest to fill, with a modicum of success.
As the only majority Shia state with a Shia government, Iran is the clear leader for a whole host of Muslims. As Hezbollah’s chief financial and operational sponsor, it is the key player in the Lebanon-Syria-Iran triumvirate. Then there’s the rising Shia minorities in countries like Iraq, or the Shia majority in Bahrain, for example, which is ruled by a Sunni leader. Factor in its strident and vocal anti-American and anti-Israeli stances, and Iran becomes an attractive alternative for Muslims throughout the region, not least among Palestinians, especially considering the close relationship between Iran and Hamas.
So where does all this leave Israel, a country that has long relied on a strong US and a pro-Israel US, both of which are now being challenged. Netanyahu certainly spoke well in Washington, but what does that mean geopolitically? Was he simply preaching to the choir? How impressive is a standing ovation from a crowd that cannot influence the situation in the Middle East?
