Israel is fighting harder against Hamas this time because of the number and sophistication of Hamas terror tunnels. But theres another reason: The prospect of the Wests acceptance of a nuclear Iran.
We believe that one main reason, an unstated reason, why Israel is so forceful in its prosecution of the war against Hamas this time has nothing directly to do with Hamas. It has everything to do with Iran, specifically with the West’s weak kneed negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.
It is not hard for Israel to read the tea leaves. Despite years of pious talk about “all options on the table” against Iran, all options are not on the table. In fact, even before the current negotiations with Iran began, the US already conceded that the best deal it could get from Iran was a significant reduction in, but not an elimination of, its nuclear centrifuges.
Translation: Instead of taking a few weeks for Iran to make a nuclear weapon, it will take a few months.
Israel cannot live with this.
Israel also cannot live with a two-front war against Iran. One front: Iran. The other front: Hamas. That is beyond Israel’s military capability.
Perhaps Israel could have temporized with Hamas this time, just as it did in 2012 and 2008-2009, all things being equal. That is, Israel could have agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas, knowing it had degraded but not eliminated Hamas’ capacity to attack Israel.
But all things are not equal. The talks between the US and Iran have not, and do not promise, an elimination of Iran’s nuclear program.
Push has come to shove. Sanctions against Iran worked to the extent that they punished Iran and brought Iran to the table. Big deal. Sanctions did not work in getting Iran to renounce its nuclear program. Iran has made its position known loud and clear, from the first day of these negotiations until now. It will not shut down its nuclear program. And the West has made its position just as loud and clear: It will not force Iran to do so.
Which means, the likelihood of Israel acting on “no options off the table” has risen dramatically.
Which means, Israel would be going it alone.
Which means, Israel must take an extremely sober look at its capacities, and lack thereof.
Israel, notwithstanding its justified reputation as having the strongest army in the Middle East, is far from having the strongest army in the world; and far from able to dent or destroy Iran’s nuclear program without a serious, repercussive, potentially painful military confrontation with Iran — painful for Israel, that is.
Which means, at the very least, Israel cannot afford to fight two wars at once. Israel cannot afford a two-front war, if one of the fronts is Iran.
Which would surely occur if Israel attacked Iran and Hamas were left to its own devices. An Israeli attack on Iran would no doubt invite the largest diversionary attack that Hamas could launch.
Which means, Israel must eliminate a potential second front before seriously considering its alternatives vis-a-vis Iran once the predictably extended negotiations with Iran come to an end with Iran keeping its nuclear program intact, albeit reduced.
Israel has been unpleasantly surprised by the extent, the sophistication and the danger of Hamas’ terrorist tunnels; and that is reason enough for Israel to fight longer and harder this time against Hamas than it did in 2008-2009 and 2012. But Israel is now determined to do more than fight longer and harder. Israel seems determined to end the threat from Hamas, or at last from its rockets and its tunnels, because a much larger, more dangerous, more frightening threat looms: Iran.
We believe that Israel’s hidden agenda in Gaza is to avoid a two-front war against Iran.
Copyright © 2014 by the Intermountain Jewish News
