Is there global warming? To answer definitively, one would have to possess a high level of specialized scientific knowledge, and to believe that computer models are capable of measuring enormously large and complex patterns. We surely do not meet the first criterion; we do not possess the requisite scientific knowledge. On the second point, we remain skeptical that computers can measure something as immense as the entire earth. When all is said and done, one resorts to a computerized model precisely because an actual measurement is impossible.
We might also add that the matter is further camouflaged by the recent, scandalous behavior of some scientists who attempted, unsuccessfully, to suppress scientific data that supposedly cast doubt on what most scientists affirm. On global warming per se, color us confused.
The real question, however, is not theoretical. It is not necessary to establish the existence of global warming beyond a shadow of a doubt in order to act as those who affirm it would have us act. Enter Blaise Pascal, the early modern philosopher. He confronted a question even bigger than global warming: Does G-d exist? He wagered: If G-d exists, and if I do not follow His moral law, I shall suffer eternal punishment. If G-d does exist, and if I follow His moral law, I shall be eternally rewarded. Therefore, I shall act as if G-d exists. If He does, I shall be on the right side forever. If He does not, I shall have lost nothing.
We say the same about global warming. If it exists, and if we act accordingly developing new, non-fossil-fuel energy sources we shall be rewarded with a cleaner planet. If global warming does not exist, and if we act as if it does, we shall have lost nothing in cutting down on the use of fossil fuels and in developing new energy sources.
One might argue against this. One may say that the struggle for renewable energy cuts down current industries and kills jobs. In fact, the same was said when the steam engine gave way to the railroad, and when the slide rule gave way to the computer. Technological advance always alters industry and kills jobs, regardless of whether the motivating force is theoretical scientific advancement, thirst for discovery or global warming. In the end, advanced technology creates more jobs than it kills.
Pascal faced a theologians challenge. Non-believers countered: Of course you will lose something if you adhere to religion and it turns out to be false. You will have lost all of the pleasures of an unrestrained life! Pascal disagreed. He thought the possibility of losing out to G-d outweighed the possibility of losing out to hedonism.
Here, the analogy to global warming falters somewhat. That is because to act as if global warming exists is also to affirm certain definitive Jewish values. Judaism teaches: Do not waste (ba’al tashchit). And be modest, not extravagant. There is no loss, only gain, in realizing these values.
To cut down on the use of fossil fuels is entirely in accord with the Jewish value not to waste resources. To develop renewable energy sources is congruent with the Jewish value of ba’al tashchit.
Likewise, as virtually any citizen of any culture but our own can see, American consumption is extravagant the very opposite of modest. Has not a moral cringe recently crept into our consciousness as we mentally compared, say, our endlessly available hot showers with the lack of even drinking water in Haiti? Tis but one example among thousands. American life is extravagant. Even if global warming does not exist even if all the warnings are hype, credible only because the real science is suppressed, manipulated or simply unknown the Jewish value of modesty instructs us to develop renewable energy sources, to cut down on waste, to live more in accord with the Prophet Micahs walk humbly with the L-rd thy G-d.
In theology, Pascal wagered ultimately on faith. In global warming, the imperative is more prosaic and clear: Act as if it exists. Cut down on waste. Cut down on extravagance.
