Literally everything suggested to force North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program has already failed — repeatedly. It’s time to take off the gloves.
If the definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing twice, but expecting a different result the second time, then American policy in North Korea is insane. The slightest familiarity with American policy toward North Korea’s nuclear ambitions under Trump, Obama, Bush and Clinton shows a devastating pattern of two deceptions: North Korea’s deception in committing to reduce or eliminate its nuclear program, and the world’s self-deception — beginning with American presidents — in believing North Korea.
Begin with President Bill Clinton, 1994: “I’d like to say just a word about the framework with North Korea that Ambassador Gallucci signed this morning. This is a good deal for the United States. North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. . . . ” Etc. etc. “The United States and international inspectors will carefully monitor North Korea to make sure it keeps its commitments. . . . ” Etc. etc.
We shall save you the complete list of deceptions, violations and then outright rejection of this nuclear deal by North Korea. The pattern is clear:
One: However sincere or even effective one administration might be in beginning to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, it cannot carry over to the next administration. The dictators in North Korea could not care less about commitments and agreements and democratic principles.
Two: Economic sanctions don’t work. North Korea evades them. North Korea has developed a slew of methods for evading them, including, but not limited to, setting up front companies, enlisting other countries to stand in for it, and transposing the economic pain inflicted by sanctions from the nuclear weapons program to the population.
Three: China is worthless as an ally in stopping North Korea. China makes money from North Korea, including from the nuclear weapons program of North Korea. China does not care about human rights in its own country, so why should it care about human rights in North Korea? (Witness China’s recent human sacrifice of Liu Xiaobo.) Not to mention, China does not want to unleash a flood of refugees that would head for China. China is one of the countries providing the front companies that enable North Korea to secure dollars from trade, or even from direct aid, for its nuclear program.
Four: We have humorous spectacles, or at least they would be humorous if the stakes were not so high. Just to seal the deal, former President Jimmy Carter hugged North Korea’s dictator. Thanks for the diplomatic insight, Jimmy.
Not far behind are the current efforts of President Trump, though, to be fair, he is no more deluded than Obama, Bush and Clinton before him. Trump is galvanizing sanctions against North Korea — the exact same thing already tried, but which did not stop the country from violating them and even officially pulling out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
To put a little flesh on these skeletal summations of North Korea’s approach, consult merely this representative segment of the timeline from GANTNews:
2005: North Korea tentatively agrees to give up its entire nuclear program, including weapons. In exchange, the US, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea say they will provide energy assistance to North Korea, as well as promote economic cooperation.
2006, July — After North Korea test fires long range missiles, the UN Security Council passes a resolution demanding that North Korea suspend the program.
October —North Korea claims to have successfully tested its first nuclear weapon. The test prompts the UN Security Council to impose a broad array of sanctions.
2007, Feb. 13 — North Korea agrees to close its main nuclear reactor in exchange for an aid package worth $400 million.
Sept. 30 — At six-party talks in Beijing, North Korea signs an agreement stating it will begin disabling its nuclear weapons facilities.
Dec. 31 — North Korea misses the deadline to disable its weapons facilities by the end of the year.
2008, June 27 — North Korea destroys a water cooling tower at the Yongbyon nuclear facilities.
Oct. 11 — North Korea is removed from the US list of states that sponsor terrorism.
December — Six party-talks in Beijing break down over North Korea’s refusal to allow international inspectors unfettered access to suspected nuclear sites.
2009, May 25 — North Korea announces it has conducted is second nuclear test.
Etc. etc.
No doubt, just as determined as his predecessors, President Trump seeks new sanctions against North Korea. Even if he could put in place overnight what he is suggesting, these sanctions would not be nearly as tough as those against Iran. And where did they get us? Not with a permanent dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program.
It is time to learn, finally, that even a rigorous set of international sanctions does not change the long-range mindset of a rogue regime. Iran is a rogue regime. North Korea is a rogue regime. Nothing less than regime change, or a show of military force, or a new version of “mutually assured destruction,” or some combination of the above, will stop North Korea’s avowed — and successful — march toward its goal of launching a nuclear weapon on the American mainland. To sanction North Korea is merely to indulge in the same self-deception begun decades ago.
March, 2003 (Washington Post): “ . . . former Clinton officials have privately argued that they would have found a way to manage the process so that the plutonium would have remained out of North Korea’s hands.”
Everything would have been great if only Bush had not been elected president. Yet:
“Some former Clinton administration officials will also concede that they never thought they would have to build the light-water reactors [for North Korea] because they assumed, wrongly, that the [North Korean] regime would collapse before the reactors would be built. So one could argue that the Agreed Framework [brokered by President Clinton] was built on a bad bet in the first place. . . . ”
The repetition of bad bets is insane.
Mssrs. Trump and Tillerson, do something different (see some ideas above) — that is, unless we prefer to sit by until North Korea launches a nuclear-armed missile against the American mainland.
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