But we’ve noticed.
Some candidates are advertising more than others. Much more.
This leads us to believe that based on advertising spend alone we can determine who’s in trouble. And who feels safe. Which races are facing razor-thin margins. And which are more comfortable in their spread – and are therefore pushing the trailing candidate to invest heavily in advertising.
Here’s what we’ve gathered on two of Colorado’s key races.
In the race for a seat in the US Senate, we can conclude that Mark Udall is trailing Cory Gardner. And not by a point or two. Over the past week, we’ve seen a barrage of anti-Gardner/pro-Udall ads on television and the Internet. We even heard a Spanish-language Udall ad yesterday on one of Denver’s Spanish-language radio stations.
And we’re starting to feel that Udall is becoming increasingly desperate, as the tenor of the ads associated with his campaign has gone from malignant to just plain unfactual.
The Romanoff-Coffman race for Colorado’s 6th District is extremely tight, and we’ve observed heavy advertising from both sides over the past two weeks. However in the past day or two, we’ve seen a lot of anti-Romanoff ads online. In Coffman’s case, it could be him feeling the pressure, or him trying to shift that tight race by even a point or two.
We’ve had a quick look, and the polls reflect our non-scientific – but accurate – analysis. According to RealClearPolitics.com, Gardner is leading Udall on average by 3.3 points, and the Coffman-Romanoff race is classified as a ‘toss up’.
Another observation: the TV and online advertising reached the oversaturation point almost at the moment it started. Our advice: Read. If you’re not sure which way to go, seek out news, analysis, commentary; it’s the best way to figure out where the candidates stand on the issues you care about.
This is an election where your vote will count, so make sure to cast it on or by November 4.