Those initial skeptics of the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel used to say: Peace cannot be based on one man. The man they meant was Anwar Sadat, who, in 1977, courageously broke the Arab paradigm of no peace, no recognition, no negotiations with Israel.
But, he was one man. And he was assassinated by the Moslem Brotherhood for making peace with Israel. Well, peace did survive that one man. But it might not survive his successor, Hosni Mubarak. Peace cannot be based on two men, one might say. One might be right. We hope not, but we fear the worst.
Of course, one may enumerate all of the rational reasons for Egypt to adhere to the peace treaty it signed with Israel in March, 1979. Egypt needs to sustain American interest in giving it $3 billion in annual aid. Egypt needs to solidify its thirst for democracy; hostility toward Israel would a convenient diversion for the current military leadership and probably end Egypts spring.
Most of all, Egypt needs to avoid war. All it got for its last wars against Israel were dead soldiers, a dead economy and the loss of the Sinai Peninsula.
However, rationality rarely rules in the Arab world. If Egypt breaks, or even downgrades, its peace with Israel, it is difficult to see how a return to the period of major Israeli-Arab hostility can be avoided.
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And not only that. Even if war is avoided, what motivation would Israel have to compromise on the Palestinian or Lebanese or Syrian fronts? Precisely none. If the message of peacemaking with Arabs is that when one or two men leave the scene, the peace treaty does not survive, then ceding of territory to Palestinians or Syria in the name of peace would be seen for what it is: a foolhardy, one-sided gesture in exchange for a piece of paper, subject to cancellation whenever the leadership in an Arab country changes.
Arab countries have virtually no experience with democracy and a peaceful transition of power. As evidenced in Egypt these past months, Egypt has no such experience. Lebanon, may have had some, but no longer. It is now a Hezbollah-run dictatorship. Jordan is a monarchy, not a democracy. Syria a dictatorship. Ditto, Saudi Arabia. Iraq? A very iffy democracy there. Keep on going down the list.
Israel is right to try to salvage its treaty with Egypt. But there is only so far Israel can go without overturning the peace treaty herself. The main plank Israel got for returning the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt was a demilitarized Sinai. Now, Israel herself has renounced, in part, its right to a demilitarized Egypt, giving Egypt permission to position thousands of soldiers there in order to stop the terrorist attacks against Israel and the smuggling to Hamas-run Gaza. A few more thousand troops here, and few more thousand troops there, some tanks here, some aircraft there all in the name of Israel giving Egypt the power to stop the terrorism and smuggling and before you know it, Israel herself has ended the treaty.
A very tough situation, with a very clear cause: The unwillingness of Hamas, and many elements in Egypt, to recognize Israel. Same old same old.
Copyright © 2011 by the Intermountain Jewish News
