Remember when China was so concerned about population growth that it instituted a one-child policy? Remember when that led to female infanticide? Fast forward 20 years, to the decade that saw China’s explosion as a world power, a leader in global manufacturing and a concomitant rise in living standard and material wealth. That same decade — the 2000s — also began to see China face a serious demographic issue, the direct result of their one-child policy, instituted in 1980. Suddenly, there weren’t enough women. The gender imbalance was taut, leading to decreasing marriage and childbirth rates.
Fast forward another 20 years, to 2021 when the policy was formally rescinded. In 2022, China faced its first population fall along with one of its worst economic performances of recent years. Certainly the coronavirus pandemic and China’s faulty zero-COVID policy played a significant role in the declining economic performance. But none of this bodes well for the country that many thought was on an unstoppable trajectory to world dominance. For those who support a rules-based order and liberal democracies — as we do — this can only be good news, even if it will mean higher prices for consumer goods for Americans.
But what we see here is a deeper, more universal lesson that has little to do with the specifics of China. Beware radical policies that claim to solve complex problems. Listen to the detractors — and there were some in China at the time when this policy was codified. While the detractors may not necessarily be correct either wholly or in part, they will raise alternative outcomes, potential side effects or hidden costs that bear inspection.
At a time of global crisis — pandemics, armed conflicts, climate change — creative thinking is needed. But all solutions must be skeptically examined so that ultimately the solution with the fewest long-term costs across all segments — social, political, economic — can be chosen and implemented. China’s one-child policy brought about the economic growth the country sought, but long term it has created a demographic crisis that may bring with it, ironically, a lower living standard for its citizens.
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