The aftermath of the United Kingdom’s vote to exit the European Union last week reminds us of the aftermath of George W. Bush’s “shock and awe” defeat of Saddam Hussein at the beginning of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. No one knew what to do next. No one foresaw the chaos that would ensue, or even made contingency plans. Just as the fall of Saddam Hussein did not defeat extremism in the Middle East, or even in Iraq, so, too, the vote to leave the EU will not solve all, or perhaps even the worst, of the UK’s economic problems. As in 1993, the solution of Brexit is exposed for what it is: simplistic.
Shock and awe was a “feel good” against an evil man who had murdered hundreds of thousands of people. Brexit was a “feel good” against the faceless, dense, infuriating bureaucratic tentacles of the EU. “Feel good” is not enough.
Only a few days after the vote, Britons are learning that many of their major economic problems are rooted in the UK, not in the EU. They are learning that divorce here is not only messy but likely a long, drawn out process. They are learning that immigration will not necessarily slow down, or that coal and shipbuilding industries will not necessarily be rebuilt, just for leaving the EU.
Was Brexit a good move? It’s too early to tell. Will Europe splinter and revert to its warrior ways? Will a new spirit of independence and economic growth overcome the current devaluation of the pound? Will the EU leadership take stock and realize that, whether Britons acted wisely or not, the EU bears some of the responsibility for its high-handed ways and indifference to national sentiment? Will Israel be better off with a weaker EU, less unified in its intent to punish the Jewish state, especially its settlements; or will a weaker and possibly redivided European continent aid and abet the emergence of the anti-Semitism that is always there?
We do not know the answers to any of these questions. We do know that the “Leave” campaign does not seem even to have considered them. We do know that there is no going back. We do know that for now, at least, the UK has made its bed, and must sleep in it.
Copyright © 2016 by the Intermountain Jewish News
