Although Israel held elections last week, it could be mid-April before someone emerges as the countrys leader and it has nothing to do with outstanding votes yet to be counted.
Unlike the US two-party system, Israels democratic process involves multiple parties. In fact, a record 43 parties registered to be included in this months election.
Ultimately, only 34 parties submitted a list of candidates and of those 34 parties, about 15 won mandates. A mandate is a percentage of the vote (currently, a party needs at least 2% of the vote to receive a mandate). That percentage determines how many people each party can send to the Knesset.
Because there are so many parties represented in the Knesset, never has a single one emerged as the ruling party with a majority of Knesset members. As a result, the parties must form coalitions to achieve a majority position.
This outcome, typical of the Israeli system, proves to be significantly unstable for the country, according to Naomi Gale, a Schusterman visiting Israeli professor at CU in Boulder. To my knowledge, she says, not one single government or one single coalition completed its four-year term [in office].
The reason for the instability has to do with how coalitions are formed.
First, the president, a figurehead and typically the eldest member of the Knesset, spends three days talking to the various parties to determine which party leader might have the best shot at forming a coalition.
Next, the president nominates that person.
From there, the nominee has 28 days to try to form a coalition of disparate parties to create a majority. If the nominee is unsuccessful, the president can allocate another 14 days. If that doesnt happen, the process starts over again.
The best outcome for this election, says Gale, is to form a wall-to-wall government. A wall-to-wall government is a coalition between the two parties that won the most mandates. In this case, it is the centrist Kadima party led by Tzipi Livni and the more right-wing Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Kadima party has a one vote lead over the Likud party.
This combination of Likud and Kadima is not far reaching, according to Gale. Kadima is a breakaway party from Likud. At some stage, Tzipi Livni and Bibi Netanyahu were under the same umbrella. So the ideological differences are minute.
Gale goes on to say that a wall-to-wall coalition is a bit suspect based on recent history.
When Ehud Olmert resigned over legal issues earlier this year, Tzipi Livni extended her hand to be with Netanyahu and said, lets have a wall-to-wall government to finish off the current term [which lasts until 2010]. But Netanyahu refused.
As a result, Gale says the outcome of the recent election proves it was a huge financial waste because the most likely scenario now is to form a wall-to-wall government.
That would be, I think, the best thing so far. Its not the best idea, but the best idea in this situation.
In the interim, Israel will be run by a provisional government until a coalition is formed. It means the country is not working and it brings a lot of dissatisfaction with Israelis. But we have no choice, says Gale.
Then again, Israelis are used to the process. Gale says she cannot recall a single instance where a government or coalition completed its four-year term.
So really, the government throughout the existence of the State of Israel could never work on the real matters, on the fundamental issues and get things done because all the time they haggle over unimportant matters wasting time with small parties.
Then again, Gale praises the Israeli political process because it offers representation to the diverse immigrant population in Israel as well as its Arab population.
Without such a fractured system, Arabs would not get a voice in what is the regions only democracy.
