Maybe it’s built-in bias, such as the way pollsters’ questions are phrased.
Maybe it’s the new technology, such as universal caller ID, i.e., the self-selecting opt out by certain types of voters.
Maybe it’s the refusal of certain voters to say what’s really on their minds.
Maybe it’s all of the above or maybe it’s something else, but whatever it is, the big loser in the 2020 presidential election was the pollsters.
They were so wrong. “Biden up by 10 points.” “Biden up by 12 points.” “Biden builts his lead.” “Biden keeps his lead.” All wrong. Biden won, but not by much.
The analyis of the Jewish vote has its own set of flaws. “75% of Jews for Biden, 22% of Jews for Trump.” It could be true, but we’ll never know. First, who counts as a Jew according to the pollster? It’s not disclosed. Second, if the poll is conducted in advance of the election, which areas are surveyed? Is there a statistically valid attempt to diversify the pool of Jews polled? It’s no secret, for example, that the upper West Side of New York City votes very differently from Borough Park in Brooklyn. Then also, all of the flaws that obviously infected the general polling that yielded the wrong numbers affect polling of Jews, too.
Bottom line: Forget the polls.
Copyright © 2020 by the Intermountain Jewish News
