THE conventional wisdom on Iran these days seems to be that the best course for the West to deter the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons is to impose sanctions.
The US, most of Europe and even Israel seem in agreement that tightening or shutting down certain kinds of trade particularly gasoline offers the best chance to convince the Iranians that their drive to develop nukes is a zero sum option.
Rabbi Daniel Zucker, an activist who actively opposes the mullah-led government of Iran, says theyre all wrong.
In comments made last week in Denver as a panelist at an event hosted by Americans Against Terrorism and in comments made later to the Intermountain Jewish News Rabbi Zucker was firm in stating that serious sanctions are unlikely to be imposed and unlikely to have a significant deterrent effect.
Rabbi Zucker, the younger brother of Denvers Rabbi David Zucker, the chaplain at Shalom Park, leads the New York-based Americans for Democracy in the Middle East, an organization he describes as a think tank basically dedicated to teaching the public, particularly through our public officials, about the dangers of Islamic fundamentalism and the need to establish genuine democratic institutions.
He focuses most of his attention on Iran, he adds, out of the realization that if we solve the Iranian problem, we probably have solved at least 60% of the Middle Easts problems.
The rabbi is in close contact with several dissident groups of the Iranian diaspora, especially one the Peoples Mujahedin of Iran, more widely known as the MEK which is highly controversial.
Rabbi Zucker, whose day job is spiritual leader of Temple Beth Shalom in Putnam County, NY, is frequently asked whether he thinks his affiliation with and advocacy for Iranian dissident groups is an unusual occupation for a Jewish spiritual leader.
One of those who recently asked him that question was Maryam Rajavi, acting leader of the Iranian MEK.
The rabbi provided her with an answer that convinced Rajavi that Jews and dissident Iranians have common cause.
This is a case of enlightened self-interest, Rabbi Zucker told the IJN last week.
I was born in this country. My parents were émigrés, by the skin of their teeth, from Nazi Germany. Im very proud of my American citizenship but Israel is my spiritual homeland. I told Mrs. Rajavi that if I can do something to rid Israel of the plague of Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, PFLP, why wouldnt I want to do that?
Ridding Israel and the world at large of that plague has turned out to be a complex and difficult task.
Rabbi Zucker says that the main task at hand putting a halt to Irans nuclear development program is a complex web of Catch 22 scenarios.
Although he feels that the US Congress is willing to impose tough sanctions by President Obamas mid-September deadline Rabbi Zucker estimates 235 votes in the House and 72 in the Senate he has doubts about the president himself.
Congress is ready to go on this one but at the same time I think the administration is going to try to drag it out as long as possible.
Even if the administration did act decisively, the rabbi feels that fuel sanctions, in particular, amount to a case of closing the barn door after the cows left.
Rabbi Zucker cites a recent paper by energy analyst Gal Luft (interviewed on this and other subjects by the IJN in 2007) that contended that its already too late to expect meaningful results from such sanctions.
At this point, realizing what was going to come on the horizon, the Iranian government has been building refineries, big time, with the help of a slew of nations Germany, Britain, France, Denmark, Malaysia, Japan including American companies who have been operating through shell fronts, Rabbi Zucker says.
By 2012, not that far away, Iran most likely will already be exporting refined petroleum, gasoline, instead of importing, as they currently are. Theyve also taken their natural gas supply and converted that into methanol, like we do with corn, and have worked on putting together gas-powered not gasoline but gas-powered transportation.
So gasoline sanctions at this point is kind of the eleventh hour, and unless imposed very quickly, is not going to make a great dent.
He places considerably more hope in applying sanctions against those corporations working to help Iran become gasoline self-sufficient.
If those sanctions are tough and uncompromising, they will have teeth and may at least slow down the Iranian nuclear program.
Slowing down that program, Rabbi Zucker adds, can be extremely important, especially if the short-range estimates about Iranian nuclear readiness turn out to be accurate.
He is hearing reports that the Iranians are currently bogged down with centrifuge problems. Other reports indicate that Iran could have the bomb in two or even four years; others in only nine months.
Im not an expert and I dont have any ties to intelligence, he qualifies, but I think we have to be prepared for the minimum amount of time.
THE option of armed conflict with Iran poses even more daunting questions, Rabbi Zucker says.
He thinks it very unlikely that the US will opt to use military force to knock out Iranian nuclear sites.
It looks very much like this administration, despite saying that every option is still on the table, does not seem at all comfortable with that.
The rabbi even suggests that the US might be hoping that Israel acts unilaterally, which would remove the onus from American policymakers.
I know from following media in the gulf that the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, despite the fact that they wont make any positive steps toward normalization with Israel, very much want Israel to solve their problem for them. This is their off-the-record position.
But the task would be even more tactically difficult for Israel than for the US, the rabbi concedes, and it might demand ethical decisions that Israel might find itself unwilling to make.
Military experts have told Rabbi Zucker that they believe its possible to take out the entire Iranian nuclear program, but it would require nuclear-tipped missiles. That option carries a distinct strategic advantage: even if everything on the ground is not destroyed, radioactivity would render remaining facilities unusable for a very long time.
But it would cause nightmarish civilian casualties, especially in the Tehran and Isfahan areas, where some of the most important facilities are located.
Rabbi Zucker is far from certain that Israel could make such a wrenching decision.
Certainly the US, in Iraq and Bosnia, has caused much larger collateral damage than the Israeli government has ever been willing to involve itself in, Rabbi Zucker says.
At the same time, the uncertainty remains. Are we just delaying the process? Given the difficulties, it becomes a very touchy thing. When, at what point, do you go ahead with this?
No matter the Israeli or American decisions, the rabbi reminds, the Iranian dangers still loom. He counts some of them on his fingertips, leaving out the most obvious threat, that of an Iranian nuclear strike:
There are 60,000 short range missiles, capable of hitting anywhere in Israel, in Lebanon, which is already and may soon fall totally under Hezbollahs influence.
Iran has set up a microwave satellite relay system, by which it can activate these missiles, and not necessarily with Lebanese consent.
Iran has an accord with the Syrian government which allows the use of Syrian missiles in a coordinated strike against Israel.
So whatever Iran has, whatever Lebanon has, whatever Syria has thats all available to cause havoc in any counterstrike on the part of Iran, Rabbi Zucker says.
Were playing a complicated chess game here. I would love to be able to wake up tomorrow morning and not have to worry about the Iranian nuclear program, no question about that, but Im also well aware of how complicated it is.
CONSIDERING the potential costs and liabilities of the economic and military options, Rabbi Zucker favors a third, seldom-discussed, approach: working to destabilize the Iranian regime from within.
The Iranian turmoil, widely seen in the West during the June elections, has not died, the rabbi contends, but has only been driven deeper underground.
The revolution is still continuing, he says. Its not as much in the streets but the government, as much as they have been able to suppress dissent, and very brutally, is clearly divided against itself. It does not have the unity or the semblance of unity.
A slogan that became popular during last summers riots proved that to Rabbi Zucker.
The supreme leader, who was beforehand always seen as being above the fray he was apolitical, not on one side or the other has shown himself to be very much in line with the hardliners. He has made himself very unpopular. Something that no one would have considered saying death to the supreme leader is now chanted on a daily basis.
This instability, he adds, provides a golden opportunity for Irans foes.
Rabbi Zucker is an unapologetic supporter of the MEK, even though the organization remains on the US list of terrorist organizations.
He contends that this classification is based on its activities in pre-revolutionary times, when the MEK was opposed to the Shah of Iran. It represents, in the rabbis view, a vain American attempt to curry favor and gain a political in, with the Islamist regime.
Im very cognizant that despite the image that the Iranian government has tried to project and succeeded in many ways until June 12 and the elections the regime is very unstable.
If the US follows the example of the EU and UK and takes the principal Iranian resistance movement, the MEK, off of the foreign terrorist organization list, it would indicate two things.
First it would indicate to the Iranian government that we really are serious, that were not going to protect them anymore from their own resistance; that when we say we dont like you, there is some bite in it.
Secondly, it would signal to the Iranian people that the cavalry is just over the horizon, and if they rise up and risk their lives in a confrontation with the regime that the cavalry can come and help.
RABBI Zucker is impressed with the MEKs expressed support for a purely non-religious democracy it has pledged to maintain separation of mosque and state as well as its apparent popularity with the Iranian diaspora, which, he is convinced, is reflective of the Iranian people in general.
Whether the MEK is the right group to lead a government of Iran or not is irrelevant, he says. Let there be open, fair, democratic elections and let the Iranian people decide for themselves whether they like the MEK or another party.
The pledge from this group is that if they succeed in a revolution and become a government, they will become caretakers for six months. Within six months they will have national elections. If they win the elections, wonderful. If they lose, they become the loyal opposition. Their intention is to form a secular democracy.
When asked whether the US should do more than just take the group off the terrorist list and consider active aid and support, Rabbi Zucker says that the MEK isnt asking for such a commitment.
This group wants this to be an internal Iranian concern, he says, but dont have the largest resistance organization tied up, handcuffed, by calling them terrorists and having them on the list with all the restrictions.
Dont throw this group behind the eight ball.
Those worried about the militaristic ambitions of the current Iranian regime, and wringing their hands over whether to use military force or economic pressure, should open their minds to another possibility, Rabbi Zucker advises.
The chances are there, he says, if we would only make use of them.
